An Ensemble Learning Model Reveals Accelerated Reductions in Snow Depth Over Arctic Sea Ice Under High‐Emission Scenarios

Abstract

There are significant differences in snow depth predictions among different earth system models, and many models underestimate snow depth, restricting their application. Here, major factors influencing snow depth changes in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were identified and evaluated. Based on satellite‐derived snow depth and CMIP6 data, an ensemble learning model based on multiple deep learning methods (hereafter referred to as the Multi‐DL model) was developed to predict future snow depth. According to satellite observations and two Operation IceBridge products, the Multi‐DL model yielded root mean square errors of 7.48, 6.20, and 6.17 cm. A continuous decrease in snow depth was observed from 2002 to 2100, and the rate of decrease accelerated with increasing emissions. Under the highest emission scenario, the first snow‐free year occurred in 2047, within the same decade as the first ice‐free year (2056). The predicted warm season snow depth was sensitive to sea ice velocity, sea ice concentration (siconc), precipitation, sea surface temperature (tos) and albedo, while the predicted cold season snow depth was sensitive to tos, air temperature, and siconc. The above parameters introduce some snow depth uncertainty. This method provides new ideas for predicting snow depth, and the generated snow depth records can provide data support for formulating Arctic‐related policies.

The Varied Role of Atmospheric Rivers in Arctic Snow Depth Variations

“…Previous studies primarily analyzed the relationship between environmental factors and snow depth. Li H. et al (2024) identified reduced NLR and increased precipitation as crucial factors contributing to decreased warm season snow depth, while increased T2m, reduced NLR, and increased NSR were important for cold season snow depth reductions. Petty et al (2018) also highlighted the significance of snowfall and sea ice motion in snow depth increases from August to April.…”