An ensemble method utilising multiple thinking styles that boosts the wisdom of the inner crowd effect

Abstract

Previous studies have demonstrated that individuals can utilize the wisdom of crowds, known as ‘the wisdom of the inner crowd’. This requires them to estimate a single question multiple times, and subsequently average these estimates. Although several methods have been proposed to achieve more accurate estimates, its efficacy remains relatively low. Therefore, this study proposes a method that assembles multiple independent methods to stimulate the wisdom of the inner crowd effect. Particularly, our method instructs participants to provide estimates five times. Through a behavioural experiment, we confirmed that our method can produce the wisdom of the inner crowd effect. Moreover, we found that our method produced more accurate estimates than a method that required participants to estimate five times without specific instructions. Furthermore, mathematical modelling demonstrated that the effectiveness of our method was greater than that of 1.5 persons. In sum, this study proposes a method to improve daily estimates.