An Epidemiological Analysis of Terrorist Attacks in the Nordic and Baltic Countries from 1970 through 2020

Abstract

Background: Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, and the recent Russo-Ukrainian war that started in 2022, were triggers that radically changed the perception of security in the Nordic and Baltic countries. The on-going Russian hybrid war has resulted in a renewed global interest in the safety and security of many countries (eg, the Nordic-Baltic Eight). The prospective North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) membership of Finland and Sweden may drastically change the regional military and political landscape. The objective of this study was to identify and characterize all documented terrorist attacks in this region as reported to the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) from 1970 through 2020. Methods: The GTD was searched using the internal database functions for all terrorism incidents in the Nordic-Baltic states: Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and Sweden. Temporal factors, location, target type, attack and weapon type, perpetrator type, number of casualties, and property value loss were collated. Results were exported into an Excel spreadsheet for analysis. Results: There were 298 terrorism-related incidents from 1970 through 2020. Most attacks occurred in Sweden, followed by Norway and Finland. No entries were recorded for the Baltic states prior to their independency in 1991. The 298 incidents resulted in a total of 113 fatalities and 277 injuries. Facility/infrastructure attacks were the most frequently identified attack type (35.0%), followed by bombings and explosions (30.9%). Armed assaults were responsible for 80 fatalities and 105 injuries, followed by bombings/explosions with 15 fatalities and 72 injuries. The predominant target types were immigrants and refugee shelters (64/298 incidents). In only 33.6% of the incidents, perpetrators were known. Right-wing assailants represented the largest group, accounting for 27 incidents. Conclusion: From 1970 through 2020, there were 298 terrorist attacks in the Nordic-Baltic Eight. Sweden accounted for 50% of incidents. The profile of terrorist attacks was very diverse, as were the perpetrators and targets. Every country had its own incident characteristics. The surge of right-wing extremism must be closely monitored.