An epidemiological model for mosquito host selection and temperature-dependent transmission of West Nile virus

Abstract

We extend a previously developed epidemiological model for West Nile virus (WNV) infection in humans in Greece, employing laboratory-confirmed WNV cases and mosquito-specific characteristics of transmission, such as host selection and temperature-dependent transmission of the virus. Host selection was defined by bird host selection and human host selection, the latter accounting only for the fraction of humans that develop symptoms after the virus is acquired. To model the role of temperature on virus transmission, we considered five temperature intervals (≤ 19.25 °C; > 19.25 and < 21.75 °C; ≥ 21.75 and < 24.25 °C; ≥ 24.25 and < 26.75 °C; and > 26.75 °C). The capacity of the new model to fit human cases and the week of first case occurrence was compared with the original model and showed improved performance. The model was also used to infer further quantities of interest, such as the force of infection for different temperatures as well as mosquito and bird abundances. Our results indicate that the inclusion of mosquito-specific characteristics in epidemiological models of mosquito-borne diseases leads to improved modelling capacity.

Mechanistic models for West Nile virus transmission: a systematic review of features, aims and parametrization

“…The dissimilarity index, calculated using 15 criteria ( table 1 ), increased slightly over time ( R = 0.27, p -value = 0.016), indicating that WNV compartmental models tended to increasingly deviate from the approaches of Ross and Macdonald ( figure 3 a ). The mean number of refinements included was 3.1, and varied between 0 [ 37 , 52 , 59 , 72 , 77 , 78 ] and 9 [ 46 , 79 , 91 ]. We identified 64% of models ( n = 49) aiming at understanding transmission, 27% ( n = 20) aiming at evaluating control strategies and 9% ( n = 7) aiming at predicting case numbers.…”

West Nile virus eco-epidemiology and climate change

“…Broadly speaking, these are divided into two types of methodological approaches that have distinct benefits and limitations. While data-driven models are typically used to associate WNV circulation with certain climatic, ecological, and other relevant conditions [127,128], process-based models explicitly describe the dynamic interactions between vectors, hosts and the environment that lead to disease transmission [129,130] (see Box 1 for more details). Process-based models often involve substantial simplifications of reality and require calibration to observed data.…”

“…Process-based models are inherently explainable but the complexity of the WNV transmission cycle and limited availability of data on vector-host ecology and disease occurrence often challenge their usefulness in accurately describing WNV spread. A wide variety of models with different degrees of complexity have been proposed in the literature, ranging from relatively simple dynamical system that offer analytically tractable insights into WNV control strategies [138] to more recently developed models that explicitly account for bird movements [139], mosquito host preference [130], or avian host heterogeneity [78]. In addition, climatic drivers of WNV are increasingly incorporated in process-based models to account for their impact on transmission dynamics [129,130,140] or to derive climatically dependent expressions of R 0 or related transmission suitability indices [51,141,142].…”

“…A wide variety of models with different degrees of complexity have been proposed in the literature, ranging from relatively simple dynamical system that offer analytically tractable insights into WNV control strategies [138] to more recently developed models that explicitly account for bird movements [139], mosquito host preference [130], or avian host heterogeneity [78]. In addition, climatic drivers of WNV are increasingly incorporated in process-based models to account for their impact on transmission dynamics [129,130,140] or to derive climatically dependent expressions of R 0 or related transmission suitability indices [51,141,142]. These approaches mainly consider mosquito-pathogen trait variations due to temperature [51,129,140,142].…”

Modeling West Nile Virus transmission in birds and humans: Advantages of using a cellular automata approach

“…In ∼70% of cases, infections in humans are asymptomatic, but some experience symptoms such as fever, headache, a skin rash, and muscle aches. In a few cases, particularly patients older than 50, the infection can lead to more severe neuroinvasive disease (meningitis or encephalitis) resulting in death in approximately 10% of these cases ( Badawi et al., 2018 ; Fasano et al., 2022 ; Ouhoumanne et al., 2018 ).…”