An ERP study on the certainty of epistemic modality in predictive inference processing

Abstract

Previous psychological experiments have shown that predictive inference processing under different textual constraints is modulated by the directionality function of epistemic modality (EM) certainty within the context. Nevertheless, recent neuroscientific studies have not presented positive evidence for such a function during text reading. Consequently, the current study deposited Chinese EMs “也许” (possibly) and “一定” (surely) into a predictive inference context to examine using the ERP technique whether a directionality of EM certainty influences the processing of predictive inference. Two independent variables, namely textual constraint and EM certainty, were manipulated, and 36 participants were recruited. The results revealed that, in the anticipatory stage of predictive inference processing while under a weak textual constraint, low certainty evoked a larger N400 (300–500 ms) in the fronto-central and centro-parietal regions, indicating the augmentation of cognitive loads in calculating the possibility of representations of the forthcoming information. Meanwhile, high certainty elicited a right fronto-central late positive component (LPC) (500–700 ms) associated with semantically congruent but lexically unpredicted words. In the integration stage, low certainty resulted in larger right fronto-central and centro-frontal N400 (300–500 ms) effects in the weak textual constraint condition, associated with the facilitation of lexical-semantic retrieval or pre-activation, and high certainty successively elicited right fronto-central and centro-parietal LPC (500–700 ms) effects, associated respectively with lexical unpredictability and reanalysis of the sentence meaning. The results support the directionality function of EM certainty and reveal the complete neural processing of predictive inferences with high and low certainties under different textual constraint conditions.