Let C n be the n-th generation in the construction of the middle-half Cantor set. The Cartesian square K n of C n consists of 4 n squares of side-length 4 −n . We drop a circle of radius r on the plane and try to estimate from below the conditional probability of this circle to intersect K n if it already intersects a disc containing K n . If the radius is very large ≈4 n then clearly this should not differ too much from the usual Buffon needle probability. But it turns out that the best known lower bound (Bateman and Volberg in arXiv:0807.2953, 2008) persists even when the radius is much smaller than this-r > Cn ε suffices-and the intersection probability is at least C ε log n n . This suggests that the method of Bateman and Volberg (arXiv:0807.2953, 2008) may be of use in proving a certain estimate for the lacunary circular maximal function from Seeger et al. (Preprint, 2005).