An Estimate of the Number of Accidents and Serious Accidents in Railway Traffic

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between the number of extraordinary events and the total number of accidents and serious accidents in railway traffic. The purpose of the paper is to estimate the total number of accidents and serious accidents on the track network of Croatian Railway Infrastructure (HŽI) until 2027. The results of the research are based on secondary data that are the subject of processing using statistical methods of correlation and regression analysis. The main finding of this paper points to the existence of a strong and positive relationship between the number of extraordinary events and the total number of accidents and serious accidents in railway traffic. The estimated number of extraordinary events and total number of accidents and serious accidents until 2027 indicates a trend of their further reduction.