Proceedings. The Eighth International Symposium on High Performance Distributed Computing (Cat. No.99TH8469)
DOI: 10.1109/hpdc.1999.805285
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An evaluation of linear models for host load prediction

Abstract: This paper evaluates linear models for predicting the Digital Unix five-second load average from 1 to 30 seconds into the future. A detailed statistical study of a large number of load traces leads to consideration of the Box-Jenkins models (AR, MA, ARMA, ARIMA), and the ARFIMA models (due to self-similarity.) These models, as well as a simple windowed-mean scheme, are evaluated by running a large number of randomized testcases on the load traces. The main conclusions are that load is consistently predictable … Show more

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Cited by 76 publications
(20 citation statements)
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“…In [8] the authors present a comparison between different classic linear models for time series forecasting used to predict load on a single Unix machine. However, the parameters of these models need to be selected by the user according to the characteristics of the particular time series of values that is taken into consideration.…”
Section: Control Experimentsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In [8] the authors present a comparison between different classic linear models for time series forecasting used to predict load on a single Unix machine. However, the parameters of these models need to be selected by the user according to the characteristics of the particular time series of values that is taken into consideration.…”
Section: Control Experimentsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Computing these is not the subject of the paper but is an important component of any resource selection framework that has been addressed in related research [8,14,26].…”
Section: Overview and Validation Frameworkmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Measurement and prediction of CPU availability has been studied in [11,37]. Measurement and modeling of network bandwidth and latency is a very active area of research [7,14,21,30].…”
Section: Related Workmentioning
confidence: 99%