An evaluation of multi‐criteria methods in integrated assessment of climate policy

Abstract

Those who conduct integrated assessments (IAs) are aware of the need to explicitly consider multiple criteria and uncertainties when evaluating policies for preventing global warming. MCDM methods are potentially useful for understanding tradeoffs and evaluating risks associated with climate policy alternatives. A difficulty facing potential MCDM users is the wide range of different techniques that have been proposed, each with distinct advantages. Methods differ in terms of validity, ease of use, and appropriateness to the problem. Alternative methods also can yield strikingly different rankings of alternatives. A workshop was held in which climate change experts and policymakers evaluated the usefulness of MCDM for IA. Participants applied several methods in the context of a hypothetical greenhouse gas policy decision. Methods compared include value and utility functions, goal programming, ELECTRE, fuzzy sets, stochastic dominance, min max regret, and several weight selection methods. Ranges, rather than point estimates, were provided for some questions to incorporate imprecision regarding weights. Additionally, several visualization methods for both deterministic and uncertain cases were used and evaluated. Analysis of method results and participant feedback through questionnaires and discussion provide the basis for conclusions regarding the use of MCDM methods for climate change policy and IA analyses. Hypotheses are examined concerning predictive and convergent validity of methods, existence of splitting bias among experts, perceived ability of methods to aid decision-making, and whether expressing imprecision can change ranking results. Because participants gained from viewing a problem from several perspectives and results from different methods often significantly differed, it appears worthwhile to apply several MCDM methods to increase user confidence and insight. The participants themselves recommended such multimethod approaches for policymaking. Yet they preferred the freedom of unaided decision-making most of all, challenging the MCDM community to create transparent methods that permit maximum user control.

Participatory Approach in Decision Making Processes for Water Resources Management in the Mediterranean Basin

“…Several of the methods implemented allow the decision-maker to focus on various aspects of the decision problem and are useful to guide the decision process. By simultaneously using a number of different decision methods and by reviewing the possible conclusions of each, decision-makers are enabled to better understand the problems and to explore the trade-offs offered by the various options (Bell et al, 2001). Since the approach is aimed at assisting decision-makers to become more familiar with analytical ways of decision-making, the methods have been kept simple to avoid discouraging inexperienced users.…”

Advancing methodological thinking and practice for development-compatible climate policy planning

“…In the area of climate change, MCDA studies constitute a relatively narrow body of analysis in comparison to more established evaluation methods when applied to climate change policy analysis. Indeed, despite MCDA being recognized for some time as a valid tool with an important role to play in evaluating trade-offs between climate policy alternatives over multiple, disparate and often conflicting criteria (Bell et al 2001, Bell et al 2003, its use in this area remains limited. MCDA has been nonetheless applied extensively to environmental management choices (e.g.…”

“…Further to the above challenges, which relate specifically to considerations relevant to the formulation of climate policies, we feel that it is important to acknowledge the concern that the use of different MCDA methods, with different underpinning principles, could lead to alternative rankings of policy alternatives (Bell et al 2001). If used naively, without proper appreciation of the underlying preference model and interpretation of its parameters, then different models may appear to generate conflicting recommendations.…”

Adapting to climate change in The Netherlands: an inventory of climate adaptation options and ranking of alternatives

“…MCA has been used to assess climate change policy; focused on adaptation and mitigation options (e.g. Ebi and Burton 2008;Gough and Shackley 2006;Brouwer and van Ek 2004;Bell et al 2001).…”