An evaluation of the impact of a large reduction in alcohol prices on alcohol-related and all-cause mortality: time series analysis of a population-based natural experiment

Herttua, Kimmo; Mäkelä, Pia; Martikainen, Pekka

doi:10.1093/ije/dyp336

Cited by 46 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…However, the consent requirement may persist in relation to data collection, unless such information is publicly available or aggregated, and need not, therefore, be collected from individuals. Thus, Costello et al 36 studied the effect of a change in family income on children's mental health via annual psychiatric assessments, for which, individual consent would be required, whereas Herttua et al 37 used available mortality register data to study the effect of changes in the price of alcohol on mortality, with no requirement for individual consent.…”

Section: The Ethical Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The nature and ethics of natural experiments

Dawson

Sim

2015

J Med Ethics

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Natural experiments are an important methodology often used to answer research questions that would, otherwise, be impossible to address, or employed because of ethical concerns about the use of randomisation to interventions that carry known risks. The UK Medical Research Council (MRC) recently produced an extremely useful document discussing the nature and significance of natural experiments within medical and public health research. In this paper, however, we suggest that the MRC document's definition of the term 'natural experiment' is insufficiently precise. In response, we offer a taxonomy of different types of natural experiments and related methods, and explore the ethical implications of these different types. We argue that while the ethical issues that may arise within natural experiments in relation to risks of harm or informed consent may differ from those within the randomised controlled trial, they are not thereby less pressing. The implications of the argument are explored and recommendations made for those involved in research governance.

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Section: The Ethical Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The nature and ethics of natural experiments

Dawson

Sim

2015

J Med Ethics

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“…Cirrhosis mortality for males declined in 12 of 21 countries, was stable in 3 countries (i.e., change < │3.0%│), and rose in 6 countries (Finland, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Sweden, United Kingdom). The rise in Finland may reflect differences in recording practices for mortality as well as recent Finnish drinking patterns (Herttua, Makela, & Martikainen, 2011;Karlsson, Makela, & Osterberg, 2010;Ramstedt, 2002). Sharp increases in mortality in several eastern European nations reflect economic changes and type of beverages consumed (Ramstedt, 2007;Zatonski et al, 2010).…”

Section: Data Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Alcohol Prices and Mortality Due to Liver Cirrhosis

Nelson

2015

Sage Open

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This study estimates a reduced-form regression model for mortality rates due to alcoholic liver diseases, with alcohol prices and income as explanatory variables. Panel data cover the years 2000-2010 for 21 member countries of the European Union. In the reduced form, prices affect mortality rates indirectly through the demand for alcohol, while income has potential direct and indirect effects. Country and time fixed effects are used to control for other factors that influence alcohol consumption and mortality. Special attention is paid to outliers in the data, and final results are based on the MS-estimator for robust regressions. Regression results for alcohol prices and income are sensitive to adjustments for stationary data and downweighting of outliers and other influential data points. Final results indicate that alcohol prices do not affect mortality rates due to chronic liver diseases. Empirical results in the study do not lend support to broad price-based approaches to alcohol policy.

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“…We were cautious in our response [4] to the views of the commentators on the nature of Drinkaware [5][6][7]. We again urge close scrutiny of similar social aspects and public relations organisations [8,9] and other charities funded by the alcohol industry whose actions appear to us to advance alcohol industry interests rather than evidence-based public health [10,11].…”

Section: Where Is the Evidence?mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While we are not arguing for one approach over another, the literature seems to suggest that using the differencing process is recommended [3]. In the alcohol field, the ARIMA model using differencing processes are used more commonly [4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. In addition, the proposed model suggested by Volpe & Fantoni did not adjust for seasonality, when traffic accidents in general are clearly seasonal, nor did it take into account other factors that might have affected data collection during the study period (e.g.…”

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confidence: 99%