An examination of land use impacts of sea level rise induced flooding

Abstract

Abstract. Coastal regions are under intense development because of their biodiversity and economic attractiveness. Meanwhile, these places are highly vulnerable to coastal hazards that are associated with sea level rise. Continuing urban development in these coastal areas that are prone to be flooded increasingly poses unnecessarily risk to their residents. While overwhelming efforts have been made to investigate coastal land use changes, few studies have simultaneously explored urban growth dynamics and its interaction with the coastal hazards. This paper applied the cellular automaton-based SLEUTH model to calibrate historical urban growth pattern from 1974 to 2013 in Bay County coastal areas, Florida. Three scenarios of urban growth – historical trend, compact development, and urban sprawl – up to 2080 were predicted by applying the calibrated SLEUTH model. To assess the effects of different policies, we developed three excluded layers – no regulations, flooding-risk mitigation, and conservational/agricultural land protection – and evaluated how different urban growth scenarios were oriented under these policies. Eventually, flooding maps were overlaid with future urban areas, and the exposure of different urban growth patterns to sea level rise induced flooding was examined. The findings suggest that if coastal cities expand in a compact manner, areas vulnerable to flooding will increase compared with historical trend and urban sprawl scenarios. With respect to policies, if no regulations are implemented, on average the flooded area in 2080 would be more than 25 times under flooding-risk mitigation. The joint model can serve as a decision support tool to assist city officials, urban planners, and hazard mitigation planners in making informed decisions. The visualization results can be also useful in public outreach regarding coastal communities' increasing risk to flooding enhanced by sea level rise.

Assessing the Economic Costs of Sea Level Rise and Benefits of Coastal Protection: A Spatiotemporal Approach

“…In general, coastal regions in the State of Florida are highly vulnerable to SLR due to its long shorelines, low plain elevation, and highly concentrated population and development along its coastline [20,21]. This is especially true for the Miami-Dade County, where one of the most populated cities, Miami, is situated.…”