An Examination of the Implementation of Risk Based Approaches in Military Operations

Abstract

Today several nations utilise risk based approaches in military planning. However, the discussion on limitations with the approaches in regard to aspects such as uncertainties, the nature of the threat and risk to civilians is limited. The aim of this work is to identify important challenges when applying risk based approaches to military activity. This article discusses risk based approaches in general and their military applications. Five generic quality requirements on risk analysis are presented from research in risk philosophy. Two military application areas for risk analysis: military intelligence, and risk management in legal assessments are analysed in relation to the presented quality requirements on risk analysis. From the analysis it is clear that risk analysis is an integral part of the decision-making analysis and cannot be separated in time, space or organisationally from the decision-making process in general. Defining the scenario to analyse, including the time span, is a central task in risk analysis and will affect every aspect of the risk estimation. Therefore, the principles for scenario definition must be communicated and continuously updated throughout the organisation. Handling the uncertainties throughout the process is also important, especially if the aim is a resilient military system.

Towards a common framework to support decision‐making in high‐risk, low‐time environments

“…Consequently, Launder and Perry (2014) linked the application of formal decision strategies in large-scale emergencies to 'planning' behaviours involving the explicit identification of incident objectives and aligned strategies and tactics and the potential development of formalized incident management structures as the incident expanded in scope and scale. This shift towards formal decision strategies in strategic situations characterized by more time, and where decisions are often made by teams, was consistently identified across the services examined (e.g., Bakken & Gilljam, 2003;Banks et al, 2020;Liwang et al, 2014;Perona et al, 2019). In these situations, multiple team members may be able to contribute to accurate situation awareness, the identification of options, and the selection of an optimal course of action and monitoring each other's decisions (McLennan et al, 2006;Militello et al, 2015).…”

“…In addition to these faster NDM strategies the literature also identified the extensive application of formal decision strategies involving the consideration of multiple options and/or the development of novel solutions across the four services examined (e.g., Agard et al, 2012; Akinci & Sadler‐Smith, 2020; Bakken & Gilljam, 2003; Banks et al, 2020; Harman et al, 2019; Hine et al, 2019; Jenkins et al, 2010; Liwang et al, 2014; Murdoch, 2019; Okoli et al, 2016; Penney, 2019; Reay et al, 2018; Seiler et al, 2010). However, there were inconsistencies identified concerning the implicit and explicit support for these strategies and their effectiveness.…”

“…Review of the literature identified that these formal decision strategies are used across the service contexts examined (e.g., Agard et al, 2012; Akinci & Sadler‐Smith, 2020; Bakken & Gilljam, 2003; Banks et al, 2020; Harman et al, 2019; Hine et al, 2019; Jenkins et al, 2010; Liwang et al, 2014; Murdoch, 2019; Okoli et al, 2016; Penney, 2019; Reay et al, 2018; Seiler et al, 2010). However, a range of terminologies were used to describe these strategies including formal/classical decisions, Type 2, or System 2 decisions, problem‐solving, and rationale decision‐making.…”

Comparison Between Different Survivability Measures on a Generic Frigate

“…As mentioned above, an alternative way of using the result is to analyse the robustness of different solutions to changes in threat and scenario. This would then meet the demands of a resilient solution where surprises in the future are assumed and also recognise the substantial uncertainties in security analysis [25,26].…”

Application of Fuzzy Expert Systems in Assessing Risk Management in the US Army

“…The authors of [9] examine the RM practices of several North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries, including the US. They do an effective review of the processes but they are processes focused and do not do any evaluation of the individuals involved.…”