An experimental analysis of the impact of campaign polls on electoral information seeking

Roy, Jason; Singh, Shane P.; Fournier, Patrick; Andrew, Blake

doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2015.08.005

Cited by 12 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Researchers have examined what voters learn during and from campaigns (Lau and Redlawsk, 2006;Hansen and Pedersen, 2014;Henderson, 2014). Particularly relevant for what follows, recent work has shown that voters can be influenced by what they learn from opinion polls, in terms of both how they seek out information and how they might vote (Roy et al, 2015;van der Meer et al, 2016).…”

Section: Learning During Campaignsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Learning on the job? Adapting party campaign strategy to changing information on the local political context

Hartman

Pattie

Johnston³

2017

Electoral Studies

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An extensive literature demonstrates that local campaign efforts in the UK generally pay electoral dividends for parties. As a result, rational parties focus campaign efforts most in seats where the electoral outcome is not predetermined , and where a few more votes either way could change the result. An important indicator of where such constituencies can be found is provided by prior election results, and previous research has shown that rational parties tend to focus their campaigns most heavily on those seats where the previous election was close and less in seats where in the past they either lost badly or won comfortably. However, much less attention has been given to how local parties react to new information showing how the competitive situation in their area is changing as a general election approaches. The paper uses data from a rare set of local opinion polls conducted in around a quarter of British constituencies in the run-up to the 2015 UK General Election. Although hampered by their generally small size, limited fund-raising capacity and reliance on volunteers, local parties do respond to new information. Results indicate that parties tended to put more effort into local campaigns in seats where an opinion poll had been carried out than in otherwise similar seats where one had not. And the more competitive the poll suggested their race was, the more resources they devoted to it.

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Section: Learning During Campaignsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Learning on the job? Adapting party campaign strategy to changing information on the local political context

Hartman

Pattie

Johnston³

2017

Electoral Studies

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“…This is essentially a similar but more generalised version of Lanoue and Bowler’s (1998: 373) distinction. If this initial consideration of popularity leads the voter to think more about other factors or consult other sources, which then results in a change of preference, this is still a bandwagon effect, as it is the popularity of the candidate which was the initial motivation (Mutz, 1997, 1998; Roy et al, 2015). 3…”

Section: Defining the Bandwagon Effectmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Unfortunately, causal mechanisms have tended to take the form of assumptions rather than tested hypotheses in bandwagon research. Promising evidence suggests that social-psychological theories such as the heuristic–systematic (Chaiken, 1987) and elaboration likelihood models (Petty and Cacioppo, 1986) hold water as bandwagon mechanisms (Areni et al, 1998, 2000; Mutz, 1992, 1997,1998; Roy et al, 2015). Mutz’s work in this vein is, again, not explicitly about the bandwagon effect, owing to her narrow conception of its meaning, but studies an essentially equivalent process.…”

Section: A Typology Of Bandwagon Effectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Think Twice before Jumping on the Bandwagon: Clarifying Concepts in Research on the Bandwagon Effect

Barnfield

2019

Political Studies Review

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The potential influence of perceived popularity of political parties or candidates on individual vote choice is most commonly studied in terms of a ‘bandwagon effect’. However, there is confusion over exactly what the bandwagon effect is. In this article, I seek to remedy this confusion by providing a clear definition and typology of bandwagon effects, grounded in a review which reappraises existing scholarship. I argue that the bandwagon effect is a distinct social phenomenon involving an individual-level change in vote choice or turnout decision towards a more or increasingly popular candidate or party, motivated initially by this popularity. I then break this down employing a typology which draws on distinctions made in the literature between static and dynamic, and conversion and mobilisation effects. This conception of the bandwagon effect leaves it open to the operation of a variety of possible underlying processes. Scholars should apply such clear concepts as are proposed here in bandwagon research, to situate and clarify their contributions theoretically and offer a more nuanced understanding of whether, how and why bandwagon effects occur across different political contexts.

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Section: Learning During Campaignsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Learning on the Job? Adapting Party Campaign Strategy to Changing Information on the Local Political Context

2016

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An extensive literature demonstrates that local campaign efforts in the UK generally pay electoral dividends for parties. As a result, rational parties focus campaign efforts most in seats where the electoral outcome is not predetermined and where a few more votes either way could change the result. An important indicator of where such constituencies can be found is provided by prior election results, and research has shown that rational parties tend to focus their campaigns most heavily on those seats where the previous election was close and less in seats where in the past they either lost badly or won comfortably. However, much less attention has been given to how local parties react to new information showing how the competitive situation in their area is changing as a general election approaches. We use data from a rare set of local opinion polls conducted in British constituencies in the run-up to the 2015 UK General Election. Although hampered by their generally small size, limited fundraising capacity, and reliance on volunteers, we find that local parties do respond to new information. Our results indicate that parties tend to put more effort into local campaigns in seats where an opinion poll had been carried out than in otherwise similar seats where one had not. And, the more competitive the poll suggested their race was, the more resources they devoted to it.

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An experimental analysis of the impact of campaign polls on electoral information seeking

Cited by 12 publications

References 36 publications

Learning on the job? Adapting party campaign strategy to changing information on the local political context

Learning on the job? Adapting party campaign strategy to changing information on the local political context

Think Twice before Jumping on the Bandwagon: Clarifying Concepts in Research on the Bandwagon Effect

Learning on the Job? Adapting Party Campaign Strategy to Changing Information on the Local Political Context

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