An Explanatory Model for Projecting Regional Fertility Differences in the Netherlands

Abstract

Current differences in the level of the total fertility rate (TFR) between Dutch municipalities are smaller than they were in the 1970s and 1980s. Nevertheless, there are still considerable differences. Small municipalities have higher TFRs than large cities. This article aims to answer the question whether these differences will decline further until differences between large and small cities disappear. For that purpose we develop a regression model of regional differences in the TFR including demographic, socioeconomic, and cultural variables. Using the estimation results we decompose differences in fertility between large and small cities into the contribution of differences in levels of the determinants versus differences in the relationships between the determinants and fertility. The results show that differences in cultural variables have a larger effect on differences in the TFR than the demographic and socioeconomic variables. As cultural differences do not tend to change quickly, they will not lead to quick changes in regional differences in the TFR. Demographic differences are not expected to lead to strong changes either, as the two demographic variables (household structure and ethnic structure) have opposite effects. As the effect of the socioeconomic variable is caused by differences in the magnitude of the regression coefficient rather than by differences in the value of this variable, even if differences in this variable disappeared, this would still not lead to convergence of the TFR. Thus the article concludes that differences in the TFR between large and small cities are not likely to diminish quickly.

Study on changing patterns of reproductive behaviours due to maternal features and place of residence in Poland during 1995–2014

“…The results obtained in this study are similar to those observed in studies conducted in other countries [15,18,30,31,32,33], despite the disparate methods used to estimate them. Analysis of changes in the patterns of reproductive behaviour during the period of 1995-2014 indicated a similar shift in the age of highest fertility, from 20-24 to 25-29 years, both in rural and urban areas; but in rural areas this process proceeded with several years of delay compare to urban areas.…”

Outworking of the Second Demographic Transition: National Trends and Regional Patterns of Fertility Change in Poland, and England and Wales, 2002-2012

“…Lesthaeghe & Neidert, ; Rotariu, ). However, there is relatively little published research comparing specific countries and examining the subnational, regional spatial dispersion of the SDT and spatial variation of reproductive behaviour within countries (De Beer & Deerenberg, ). Compton () attributed this to a less obvious relationship between fertility and geographical space compared with migration and mortality, where differentials may respectively be associated with uneven economic development and variable environmental conditions.…”

Geographic variation in parity progression in Australia

“…De Beer and Deerenberg () note that because subnational fertility trends are important for projection purposes, without having an explanation for the regional differences, it is difficult to decide whether changes observed in the past are likely to continue in the future and, if so, to what extent. Although this analysis could not disentangle whether other migration theories such as socialization, adaptation, and disruption are involved in explaining regional differences, we have shown that composition factors and place are both important for explaining fertility progression.…”