An exploration of causal factors in unintentional dwelling fires

Abstract

We examine the causal factors involved in unintentional dwelling fire incidents within the Merseyside area of the North West region of the United Kingdom. The approach of all-subsets multiple linear regression was used to develop an unintentional dwelling fire risk model for the region. The risk model was based on data obtained from UK government agencies relating to causal factors iden tified by earlier published studies. In the region studied, mental health problems, disability and residents living alone were the most significant factors associated with unintentional dwelling fire fatalities. However, in a separate model of the incidence of unintentional dwelling fires within the region, binge drinking and smoking were additional statistically significant factors.

Socio-economic and demographic predictors of accidental dwelling fire rates

“…Links between fire rates and single person households have been reported before [22,33], but previous research has not noted the influence of the age of individuals living alone. Those under 65, and in particular those in the 35-54 age bracket, appear to be an important group whose presence is strongly linked to higher rates of accidental dwelling fire.…”

“…People living alone and of working-age are known to have lower rates of economic activity than the general population, and to be more likely to smoke or drink [35]. With a considerable proportion of dwelling fires attributable to smoking material [2] or associated with drinking [20,33] this may be one mechanism linking the younger group to increased rates of fire. Indeed, there is good evidence that alcohol is an important factor in fire related deaths of those under 60 in particular [36].…”

Improving the effectiveness of fire prevention using the “premonition” agent-based model of domestic fire risk behaviours

“…When considering demographic and socio-economic factors, research has pointed to a number of significant correlations. First, fire incidents are more likely to occur in households where the occupant suffers from a disability and/or illness (Bain et al , 2002; Holborn et al , 2003; Maull et al , 2010; Smith et al , 2008; Taylor et al , 2012). Moreover, poor health and disability amongst the elderly further reduce the likelihood that they can escape during a fire (Harpur et al , 2014).…”

“…Moreover, poor health and disability amongst the elderly further reduce the likelihood that they can escape during a fire (Harpur et al , 2014). Second, studies have identified social deprivation as a significant factor in house fires (Bain et al , 2002; Chhetri et al , 2010; Duncanson et al , 2002; Mulvaney et al , 2008; Shai, 2006; Smith et al , 2008: Taylor et al , 2012). Third, research has shown that households with single occupants also appear more at risk of domestic fire incidents (Holborn et al , 2003; Smith et al , 2008; Taylor et al , 2012).…”

“…These behaviours are associated with increased risks for individuals with certain demographic and socio-economic backgrounds. First several studies have identified smoking specifically as a cause of household fires (Holborn et al , 2003; Jennings, 2013; Leistikow et al , 2000; Mulvaney et al , 2008; Taylor et al , 2012), leading to higher levels of risk amongst single occupancy homes in particular. Second, studies have pointed to drinking of alcohol, and intoxication as a significant factor in domestic fire incidents (Holborn et al , 2003; Taylor et al , 2012).…”