An exploration of Donald Trump's allegations of massive voter fraud in the 2016 General Election

Strict ID Laws Don’t Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008–2018

“…We consider both the total number of cases (columns 1-2 and 5-6) and the subset of cases belonging to categories more directly addressed by strict ID requirements (columns 3-4 and 7-8), as described in Section 2.3. The total number of cases reported in both the News21 and Heritage Foundation datasets is very low, corroborating existing studies (Minnite, 2010;Cottrell et al, 2018): 0.08 and 0.02 cases per year per 100,000 residents, respectively. About one third (0.03) and one half (0.01) of these cases were directly addressed by the laws.…”

“…They argue that strict ID laws are required to deter voter impersonation, double-voting, and non-citizen voting, and to boost public confidence in the integrity of elections (von Spakovsky, 2012). Opponents argue that voter fraud, extremely rare, results from individual cases of initiative or error rather than a coordinated effort (Minnite, 2010;Cottrell et al, 2018). On costs, advocates of strict laws argue that they impose only a minor burden on voters, as proof of identification is also required for other activities, like cashing a check.…”

Trump: Causes and Consequences

“…However, actual evidence for vote fraud is scant and the overwhelming preponderance of work on the subject refutes any such large-scale claims outright. 19 President Trump's Advisory Commission on Election Integrity-disbanded without result-also attests to the difficulty of turning up credible evidence of vote fraud. Still such unsubstantiated claims nevertheless function as justification for measures that make it more difficult or even impossible for some citizens to vote.…”

Mail-In Absentee Ballot Anomalies in North Carolina's 9th Congressional District

“…As a final note, the improprieties that, per the North Carolina State Board of Elections, occurred in Bladen and Robeson Counties in the 2018 midterm election are not of the type most associated with public concerns about election fraud. As discussed in Cottrell, Herron, and Westwood (2018), these concerns generally turn on matters like ineligible voting and not on the extent to which mailin absentee balloting makes the American election system vulnerable to fraud. Given the expansion across the United States of voting by mail, notably in Oregon and Washington, the events in North Carolina's 9th Congressional District pose a challenge for state and local officials who manage elections and mail-in absentee ballot casting in particular.…”

“…As there were 10,651 mail-in absentee votes cast in the Harris-McCready contest, the pro-Harris absentee ballot fraud alleged to have contaminated the race was conceivably pivotal to its outcome. 3 Allegations of fraud in American elections are not new (Minnite 2010;Hasen 2018), and voter fraud featured prominently in the aftermath of the 2016 general election (Cottrell, Herron, and Westwood 2018). Although many Americans profess to believe otherwise (Ansolabehere and Persily 2008), there is no evidence that fraud is a widespread problem in American elections (e.g., Ahlquist, Mayer, and Jackman 2014).…”