An Exploratory Analysis of Climate Variability and Its Effects on Community Resilience in Nabiswera Sub-County of Nakasongola District, Uganda

Abstract

Climate variability and change are fundamental global challenges that pressure society’s social, economic and environmental dimensions. The study examined how climate variability affected community resilience in Nakasongola District’s Nabiswera sub-county from 1984 to 2016. Geospatial vulnerability and regression analysis tools were used to assess climate variability and establish the relationship between climate variability and community resilience. Results showed a significant change in rainfall and temperature patterns over 30 years (1984–2014). Climate variability significantly affected community resilience (F = 18.266 and p = 0.000). The change in climatic conditions exposed all social groups’ resilience within the pastoral communities, as most depend on rain-fed agriculture. The paper mainly focused on the longitudinal effects of temperature and rainfall variability and further research is recommended to identify coping strategies for climate variability. It is recommended that early warning and early action systems be established to ensure that households are prepared for disasters and that resources are available to respond when shocks occur.