An Extended Learning Analytics Framework Integrating Machine Learning and Pedagogical Approaches for Student Performance Prediction and Intervention

Abstract

The use of educational data mining and machine learning to analyse large data sets collected by educational institutions has the potential to discover valuable insights for decision-making. One such area that has gained attention is to predict student performance by analysing large educational data sets. In the relevant literature, many studies have focused on developing prediction models on student performance but comparatively less work exists on actions taken based on predicted at-risk students and evaluating their impact. Learning Analytics Intervention (LAI) studies have emerged as an approach that aims to address this gap. In LAI studies, student risk levels are predicted and disseminated to relevant stakeholders (academics, administrators and students) using learning analytics (LA) tools for targeted interventions. The interventions themselves are mainly left under the discretion of the academics and/or administrators, who are aware of the learning context and have the authority to make decisions, with LA tools facilitating this process. LAI studies have shown success in improving outcomes (e.g. improve pass rates, retention, grades), but their uptake has been slow. The main impediment to piloting LAIs by academics has been the lack of access to LAI infrastructure, which requires institutional investments to develop predictive models collecting data from diverse IT systems. Another challenge in LAIs is the development of effective interventions. This paper presents an extended LAI framework, termed Student Performance Prediction and Action (SPPA), which provides access to LAI infrastructure for academics to pilot LAIs in their courses without the need for institution-wide efforts. SPPA and its features are seamlessly accessed via a web browser and academics can develop course-specific predictive models based on historical course assessment data. Furthermore, SPPA integrates sound pedagogical approaches and provides relevant information (such as students’ knowledge gaps, personalised study plans) to assist academics in providing effective interventions. SPPA was evaluated by a number of academics piloting LAIs in their courses. Quantitative and qualitative data was collected and analysed. Academics were able to provide effective interventions using SPPA and also had a positive outlook on using SPPA and its features. SPPA is also provided as an open-source project for further development and can be a catalyst for widescale uptake in LAIs. Furthermore, a model for continuous improvement in LAIs is outlined along with a number of areas for future research and development.