An extended SEIARD model for COVID-19 vaccination in Mexico: analysis and forecast

Abstract

In this study, we propose and analyze an extended SEIARD model with vaccination. We compute the control reproduction number Rc of our model and study the stability of equilibria. We show that the set of disease-free equilibria is locally asymptotically stable when Rc<1 and unstable when Rc>1, and we provide a sufficient condition for its global stability. Furthermore, we perform numerical simulations using the reported data of COVID-19 infections and vaccination in Mexico to study the impact of different vaccination, transmission and efficacy rates on the dynamics of the disease.