This paper presents a methodology for deriving best statistics for the calibration of spatial interaction models, and several procedures for finding best parameter values are described. The family of spatial interaction models due to Wilson is first outlined, and then some existing calibration methods are briefly reviewed. A procedure for deriving best statistics based on the principle of maximum-likelihood is then developed from the work of Hyman and Evans, and the methodology is illustrated using the example of a retail gravity model. Five methods for solving the maximum-likelihood equations are outlined: procedures based on a simple first-order iterative process, the Newton-Raphson method for several variables, multivariate Fibonacci search, search using the Simplex method, and search based on quadratic convergence, are all tested and compared. It appears that the Newton-Raphson method is the most efficient, and this is further tested in the calibration of disaggregated residential location models.
IntroductionAn essential part of the process of developing operational models of urban systems involves the choice of appropriate methods of parameter estimation or calibration. In the case of models based upon systems of linear equations researchers have been able to draw upon the well-developed field of linear statistical method, but for many models such linear calibration methods are unsuitable. Several models, whose structure is described by non-linear equation systems, cannot be calibrated using the relatively direct approach of linear estimation, and yet few researchers have attempted to apply appropriate methods of non-linear estimation. A particularly important class or family of models, for which this calibration problem is severe, deals with spatial interaction in geographic systems such as cities and regions. In this paper an attempt will be made to develop a calibration methodology, relevant to models of spatial interaction, and to apply and test several techniques for efficiently solving the model's equations. The types of model dealt with here have been described by various terms. Traditionally such models are called gravity models, in analogy with Newton's concept of gravitation; more recently, similar models have been derived using powerful methods of entropy maximisation from statistical mechanics (Wilson, 1970a). Also included within this class of spatial interaction models are models such as those based on intervening opportunities which can be derived heuristically. Already there are indications that the foundations of a general methodology for calibrating such models are being laid. Two important papers, by Hyman (1969) and Evans (1971), tackle^ the calibration problem as a problem of statistical estimation, although the results which these authors present are specific to trip distribution models as used in transportation planning. This paper builds on the work of Hyman and Evans by extending their calibration methodology to other models in the family of spatial interaction models, and the metho...