An impact assessment of electricity and emission allowances pricing in optimised expansion planning of power sector portfolios

Abstract

This version is available at https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/44919/ Strathprints is designed to allow users to access the research output of the University of Strathclyde. Unless otherwise explicitly stated on the manuscript, Copyright © and Moral Rights for the papers on this site are retained by the individual authors and/or other copyright owners. Please check the manuscript for details of any other licences that may have been applied. You may not engage in further distribution of the material for any profitmaking activities or any commercial gain. You may freely distribute both the url (https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/) and the content of this paper for research or private study, educational, or not-for-profit purposes without prior permission or charge.Any correspondence concerning this service should be sent to the Strathprints administrator: strathprints@strath.ac.ukThe Strathprints institutional repository (https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk) is a digital archive of University of Strathclyde research outputs. It has been developed to disseminate open access research outputs, expose data about those outputs, and enable the management and persistent access to Strathclyde's intellectual output. AbstractThe present work concerns a systematic investigation of power sector portfolios through discrete scenarios of electricity and CO2 allowance prices. The analysis is performed for different prices, from regulated to completely deregulated markets, thus representing different electricity market policies. The modelling approach is based on a stochastic programming algorithm without recourse, used for the optimisation of power sector economics under multiple uncertainties. A sequential quadratic programming routine is applied for the entire investigation period whilst the time-dependent objective function is subject to various social and production constraints, usually confronted in power sectors. The analysis indicated the optimal capacity additions that should be annually ordered from each competitive technology in order to substantially improve both the economy and the sustainability of the system. It is confirmed that higher electricity prices lead to higher financial yields of power production, irrespective of the CO2 allowance price level.Moreover, by following the proposed licensing planning, a medium-term reduction of CO2 emissions per MWh by 30% might be possible. Interestingly, the combination of electricity prices subsidisation with high CO2 allowance prices may provide favourable conditions for investors willing to engage on renewable energy markets.

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