An Improved Operational System for Forecasting Precipitation Type

Bocchieri, Joseph R.; Maglaras, George J.

doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111<0405:aiosff>2.0.co;2

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…To this end, several studies have explored methods of precipitationtype estimation from vertical thermodynamic profiles (e.g., Bocchieri 1980;Bocchieri and Maglaras 1983;Czys et al 1996;Zerr 1997;Bourgouin 2000). Small changes in environmental thermodynamic conditions can alter the precipitation type observed at the ground.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Dual-Polarization Radar Signature of Hydrometeor Refreezing in Winter Storms

Kumjian

Ryzhkov

Reeves

et al. 2013

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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Polarimetric radar measurements in winter storms that produce ice pellets have revealed a unique signature that is indicative of ongoing hydrometeor refreezing. This refreezing signature is observed within the lowlevel subfreezing air as an enhancement of differential reflectivity Z DR and specific differential phase K DP and a decrease of radar reflectivity factor at horizontal polarization Z H and copolar correlation coefficient r hv . It is distinct from the overlying melting-layer ''brightband'' signature and suggests that unique microphysical processes are occurring within the layer of hydrometeor refreezing. The signature is analyzed for four icepellet cases in central Oklahoma as observed by two polarimetric radars. A statistical analysis is performed on the characteristics of the refreezing signature for a case of particularly long duration. Several hypotheses are presented to explain the appearance of the signature, along with a summary of the pros and cons for each. It is suggested that preferential freezing of small drops and local ice generation are plausible mechanisms for the appearance of the Z DR and K DP enhancements. Polarimetric measurements and scattering calculations are used to retrieve microphysical information to explore the validity of the hypotheses. The persistence and repetitiveness of the signature suggest its potential use in operational settings to diagnose the transition between freezing rain and ice pellets. * Current affiliation: Advanced Study Program, National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1 Boulder, Colorado.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Dual-Polarization Radar Signature of Hydrometeor Refreezing in Winter Storms

Kumjian

Ryzhkov

Reeves

et al. 2013

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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“…This advantage is used by developing separate MOS convection and TL probabilities based on each of two NCEP models: the GFS and the North American Mesoscale Model (NAM; Rogers et al 2005), and then applying them as separate potential LAMP predictors (bottom section of Table 2). In addition, assorted product variables defined from these MOS probabilities (Table 2) are designed to capture dynamic, nonlinear interactions between the two component predictors and the convection or TL predictand (Bocchieri and Maglaras 1983;Reap and Foster 1979). Further, a meteorologically static variable, such as the predictand monthly relative frequency or terrain elevation (Table 2), is ''dynamically activated'' when multiplied with the MOS probability (a dynamic predictor; Charba and Samplatsky 2011b).…”

Section: ) Mosmentioning

confidence: 99%

LAMP Upgraded Convection and Total Lightning Probability and “Potential” Guidance for the Conterminous United States

Charba

Samplatsky

Kochenash

et al. 2019

Weather and Forecasting

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Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) convection and lightning probability and “potential” guidance forecasts for the conterminous United States, developed by the Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL), have been produced operationally and made available to aviation and other users through the National Digital Guidance Database (NDGD) since April 2014. In response to user requests for improved skill and resolution of these forecasts, MDL has recently made extensive upgrades, and a switch to the new LAMP guidance was made in January 2018. Upgrades include improved spatial and temporal resolution of the predictands, which were enabled by first time LAMP use of finescale radar reflectivity products from the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system, total lightning observations from a ground-based lightning sensing system, and finescale model output from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model. This article describes how these new data inputs are applied in the LAMP model to obtain improved skill and sharpness of the convection and total lightning probability forecasts. Strengths and limitations in LAMP performance are shown through verification statistics and example verification maps for a selected intense convective storm case.

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“…Predicting the location where all these forms of precipitation occur, the precipitation-type transition region, has traditionally relied upon atmospheric thickness techniques (see, for example, Lamb 1955;Lowndes et al 1974;Bocchieri 1979Bocchieri ,1980Bocchieri and Maglaras 1983). However, such techniques are incapable of incorporating the critical fine-scale structure of the precipitation that results from the complex physical processes occurring in the transition region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%