An improved optimization model for crowd evacuation considering individual exit choice preference

Abstract

Guidance‐assisted crowd evacuation is a process of combining individual exit choice behavior with managers' exit assignment control. The knowledge of individual exit choice preference is of great significance for optimizing global exit assignment planning. This study proposes an improved optimization model for crowd evacuation by integrating the individual‐level exit choice preference analysis with system‐level exit assignment optimization to represent more realistic crowd evacuation decisions. First, the impact factors of individual exit choice behavior are considered in a mixed logit model to predict the probability of each individual choosing each exit in specific situations. Second, a preference‐based exit filtering strategy is designed to analyze the sensible alternative exits for individuals or groups in multi‐scale evacuation cells. Finally, to pursue optimal exit assignment planning, a multi‐objective particle swarm optimization algorithm and an improved social force model are adopted to simulate the process of crowd evacuation and evaluate the performance of the specific exit assignment plans. The case study of an outdoor multiple‐exit scenario in Xi'an, China, indicates that the proposed model can help managers to understand the heterogeneity of individual evacuation behaviors. Furthermore, it will support more reliable and realistic evacuation decisions in real‐life situations than conventional plans that typically implement the top‐n strategy.

A Spatio-Temporal Cognitive Framework for Individual Route Choice in Outdoor Evacuation Scenarios

“…However, the research to date fails to provide a practical tool to construct a spatio-temporal route choice strategy, especially a lack of cognition representation for crowd dynamics and subjective route planning. Agent-based models are widely used to simulate the crowd evacuation process in the physical world [39,40] and can also be applied in the individual cognition domain. The agent-based crowd evacuation simulation can reproduce the individual subjectively estimated spatio-temporal positions and trajectories of the crowd and further support the individual optimal spatio-temporal route planning.…”

Emergency exit layout planning using optimization and agent-based simulation

“…In general, having two exits on different walls seems better than having two exits on the same wall. Gao et al (2022) also focus on exit choice modeling and identify four factors that influence exit choice preference: age, gender, distance to exit, and crowdedness of the exit. This is combined with system-level exit assignment optimization and used to study evacuation from an outdoors museum using agent-based simulation.…”

Corrigendum

“…In Gao et al (2022), the following error was published on page 2850. The funding information text did not include funding numbers, and the order was incorrect.…”