An index of Brazil’s vulnerability to expected increases in natural flash flooding and landslide disasters in the context of climate change

Debortoli, Nathan; Camarinha, Pedro Ivo Mioni; Marengo, José A.; Rodrigues, Regina R.

doi:10.1007/s11069-016-2705-2

Cited by 161 publications

(99 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…The seasonal analysis is justified by the marked inter-annual variability of precipitation, as shown above (Figure 1b). These extreme precipitation indices are also used to detect possible relationships between hydrological hazards and areas potentially vulnerable to catastrophic events [13,15,22,[40][41][42]. The extreme rainfall indices can be divided in three categories (Table 1): (1) the intensity indices describe the amount of maxima (or maximum) precipitation in one day (RX1day) and maximum accumulated precipitation in 5 consecutive days (RX5day), respectively.…”

Section: Extreme Precipitation Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Precipitation Trends and Floods in the Colombian Andes

Ávila

Cardona

Escobar

et al. 2019

Water

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This study aims to identify spatial and temporal precipitation trends by analyzing eight extreme climate indices of rainfall in the High Basin of the Cauca River in Southwestern Colombia from 1970 to 2013. The relation between historical floods and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is also analyzed. Results indicate that in general, the reduction of precipitation, especially in the center of the basin with negative annual and seasonal trends in intensity indices, namely, the annual maximum 1-day precipitation amount (RX1day) and annual maximum 5-day precipitation amount (RX5day). Sixty-four percentage of the stations exhibit an increasing trend in September–October–November in the consecutive dry days. In December–January–February interval, positive trends in most of the stations is noted for total precipitation and for the number of wet days with rainfall greater than or equal to 1 mm. The findings also show that sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific is statistically correlated (r) with indices of extreme precipitation (r ≥ −0.40). However, the effect of ENSO is evident with a time lag of 2–3 months. These results are relevant for forecasting floods on a regional scale, since changes in SST of the equatorial Pacific may take place 2–3 months ahead of the basin inundation. Our results contribute to the understanding of extreme rainfall events, hydrological hazard forecasts and climate variability in the Colombian Andes.

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Section: Extreme Precipitation Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Precipitation Trends and Floods in the Colombian Andes

Ávila

Cardona

Escobar

et al. 2019

Water

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“…There is, however, strong demand for integrated quantitative regional vulnerability studies that consider both social and physical variables [7] and demand by government officials for indicators to do so as outlined by Canada's Expert Panel on Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience Results [8]. The potential to link downscaled climate model data with vulnerability assessments makes such assessments even more desirable [9][10][11][12]. With over 25 years of vulnerability case studies and literature summarizing commonalities and trends throughout the field, there are enough data to begin moving beyond community-level analysis in heavily studied regions, although few methods have been proposed for upscaling integrated vulnerability case studies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A systems network approach for climate change vulnerability assessment

Debortoli

Sayles

Clark

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Vulnerability to climate change is a product of biophysical and social dynamics. Assessments of community or regional vulnerability, however, often focus on quantitative infrastructure and environmental assessments, or qualitative assessments of a community's social dynamics and livelihood activities. A dearth of integrated quantitative assessments is a major barrier for decision makers who require quantitative outputs and indicators, which can measure where vulnerability is most severe and can be linked to climate projections. Our framework and analysis helps address such gaps by identifying variables to build climate change vulnerability indices, which we pilot here focusing on Inuit communities in the Canadian Arctic. We start with a systematic literature review of community-based vulnerability studies and assess relationships among 58 social and biophysical variables. We then use multiplex network analysis to determine how social and environmental variables interact among and within the key component of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We identify several structurally important variables that interact within and across the three dimensions of vulnerability. This method is transferable as an integrative means of understanding not only the direct causes of vulnerability, but also relations that are less tangible. The approach of multiplex network analysis can be a building block to ongoing development of vulnerability indices within the human dimensions of climate change field.

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“…The simple daily intensity index (SDII) is the ratio between the total annual rainfall and the number of wet days (≥1 mm). These indices have been widely used to quantify severe rainfall and to detect possible relationships between hydrological threats and areas that are potentially vulnerable to catastrophic events [24,[70][71][72][73][74][75].…”

Section: Extreme Rainfall Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Streamflow Intensification Driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in the Atrato River Basin, Northwestern Colombia

Cerón

Kayano

Andreoli

et al. 2020

Water

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The impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on the variations in the streamflow in the Atrato River Basin (ARB) during the 1965–2016 period was analyzed here by considering the cold (1965–1994) and warm (1995–2015) phases of this oscillation. The mean streamflow increased after 1994 (AMO phase change). This increase is related to the strengthening of the zonal gradients of the sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) between the tropical central Pacific and the tropical Atlantic after 1994 (warm AMO phase). These gradients contributed to strengthen the Walker cell related upward movement over northern and northwestern South America, in particular during November-December (ND). Consistently, the frequency (R20 mm) and intensity (SDII) of extreme daily rainfall events increased during the 1995–2015 period. Our results show a connection between the AMO and the increase in the streamflow in the ARB during the last five decades. These results contribute to the studies of resilience and climate adaptation in the region.

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An index of Brazil’s vulnerability to expected increases in natural flash flooding and landslide disasters in the context of climate change

Cited by 161 publications

References 21 publications

Recent Precipitation Trends and Floods in the Colombian Andes

Recent Precipitation Trends and Floods in the Colombian Andes

A systems network approach for climate change vulnerability assessment

Streamflow Intensification Driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in the Atrato River Basin, Northwestern Colombia

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