Understanding of the hydroecological relationship is vital to maintaining the health of the river and thus its ecosystem. Stepwise selection is widely used to develop numerical models which represent these processes. Increasingly, however, there are questions over the suitability of the approach, and coupled with the increasing complexity of hydroecological modelling, there is a real need to consider alternative approaches. In this study, stepwise selection and information theory are employed to develop models which represent two realizations of the system which recognizes increasing complexity. The two approaches are assessed in terms of model structure, modelling error, and model (statistical) uncertainty. The results appear initially inconclusive, with the information theory approach leading to a reduction in modelling error but greater uncertainty. A Monte Carlo approach, used to explore this uncertainty, revealed modelling errors to be only slightly more distributed for the information theory approach. Consideration of the philosophical underpinnings of the two approaches provides greater clarity. Statistical uncertainty, as measured by information theory, will always be greater due to its consideration of two sources, parameter and model selection. Consequently, by encompassing greater information, the measure of statistical uncertainty is more realistic, making an information theory approach more reflective of the complexity in real-world applications. KEYWORDS complexity, ecological lag, hydroecological modelling, information theory, regression, statistical uncertainty, stepwise selection, uncertaintyThe ecological role of flow is increasingly understood. Rivers are not solely dependent on low flows; they represent extremely variable and dynamic systems (Arthington, 2012;Poff et al., 1997). It is widely acknowledged that the flow regime is a major determinant of the ecological health of river ecosystems (Lake, 2013;Lytle & Poff, 2004;Poff et al., 1997;Poff & Zimmerman, 2010). The inherent complexity makes it challenging to identify and quantify hydroecological relationships.Numerical modelling is a well-established technique for testing hydroecological hypotheses. Hydroecological models can be developed at different scales, from the single case study river model (Exley, 2006;Visser, Beevers, & Patidar, 2017) with multiple sample sites to models encompassing a given region or particular flow regime (Monk, Wood, Hannah, & Wilson, 2007;Worrall et al., 2014). Ecological data and hydrological (ecologically/biologically relevant) predictors serve as the basis for these models. The ecological component is frequently characterized by macro-invertebrates, fish, or other invertebrates (Bradley et al., 2017).
| Catchment dataThe River Nar has a distinctive change at its midpoint, from chalk to fen river. The focus of this paper is the 153. The hydrological indices are considered multiseasonally, with the hydrological year subdivided into the two standard hydrologic seasons, winter (October-March) and summ...