An informative prior probability distribution of the gompertz parameters for bayesian approaches in paleodemography

Sasaki, Tomohiko; Kondo, Osamu

doi:10.1002/ajpa.22891

Cited by 11 publications

(12 citation statements)

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“…This would explain the unusually high survival rate into advanced life stages that resulted from the first analysis; that is, the age-at-death of the Jomon specimens were overestimated, especially among members of the older age range. Dotted lines enclose 50% and 95% confidence regions of the results with reference logitDVRrt adjustment, estimated by 10,000 bootstrap sampling (lines are smoothed) -gatherer populations (31.9, 33.9, 39.3, 44.3, and 54.5 years) reported in literature (see Sasaki & Kondo, 2015). It is known that root size is smaller among the Jomon than among modern Japanese (Suwa, Fukase, Kono, Kubo, & Fujita, 2011; also evident in our sample).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 65%

“…This is markedly longer than the $16 year estimate of Kobayashi (1967) (statistically significant at the 5% level), but lies at the shorter end of the range of five FIG URE 4 Distribution of the two Gompertz parameters (the first parameter in log-scale). Ethnographic/census data points (represented by circles) were those determined in Sasaki and Kondo (2015). The regression line is calculated on the circle plots.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The regression line is calculated on the circle plots. Dotted lines enclose 50% and 95% confidence regions of the results with reference logitDVRrt adjustment, estimated by 10,000 bootstrap sampling (lines are smoothed) known modern hunter-gatherer populations (31.9, 33.9, 39.3, 44.3, and 54.5 years) reported in literature (see Sasaki & Kondo, 2015).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Comparison of the observed with the expected stage frequencies resulted in a better goodness of fit (Figure 3B). Pearson's v 2 -test p-values were .013 in (A) and .284 in (B) shows that theKobayashi (1967) parameters lie outside the 95% confidence region of the current study, indicating a significant difference from our results.Comparison of the Gompertz parameters to a wide range of human populations based on ethnographic/census data (calculated bySasaki & Kondo, 2015) is instructive. The MLE of the coefficient of augmentation (c) was 0.224.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…However, integrated properties of a mortality profile, such as life expectancies, are reproduced by approximated Gompertz mortalities with sufficient accuracy(Sasaki & Kondo, 2015). However, integrated properties of a mortality profile, such as life expectancies, are reproduced by approximated Gompertz mortalities with sufficient accuracy(Sasaki & Kondo, 2015).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Maximum likelihood estimate of life expectancy in the prehistoric Jomon: Canine pulp volume reduction suggests a longer life expectancy than previously thought

Sasaki

Kondo

2016

American J Phys Anthropol

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Recent theoretical progress potentially refutes past claims that paleodemographic estimations are flawed by statistical problems, including age mimicry and sample bias due to differential preservation. The life expectancy at age 15 of the Jomon period prehistoric populace in Japan was initially estimated to have been ∼16 years while a more recent analysis suggested 31.5 years. In this study, we provide alternative results based on a new methodology. The material comprises 234 mandibular canines from Jomon period skeletal remains and a reference sample of 363 mandibular canines of recent-modern Japanese. Dental pulp reduction is used as the age-indicator, which because of tooth durability is presumed to minimize the effect of differential preservation. Maximum likelihood estimation, which theoretically avoids age mimicry, was applied. Our methods also adjusted for the known pulp volume reduction rate among recent-modern Japanese to provide a better fit for observations in the Jomon period sample. Without adjustment for the known rate in pulp volume reduction, estimates of Jomon life expectancy at age 15 were dubiously long. However, when the rate was adjusted, the estimate results in a value that falls within the range of modern hunter-gatherers, with significantly better fit to the observations. The rate-adjusted result of 32.2 years more likely represents the true life expectancy of the Jomon people at age 15, than the result without adjustment. Considering ∼7% rate of antemortem loss of the mandibular canine observed in our Jomon period sample, actual life expectancy at age 15 may have been as high as ∼35.3 years.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 65%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Maximum likelihood estimate of life expectancy in the prehistoric Jomon: Canine pulp volume reduction suggests a longer life expectancy than previously thought

Sasaki

Kondo

2016

American J Phys Anthropol

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Paleodemography: From archaeology and skeletal age estimation to life in the past

Boldsen

Milner

Ousley

2021

American Journal of Biological Anthropology

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Much of paleodemography, an interdisciplinary field with strong ties to archaeology, among other disciplines, is oriented toward clarifying the life experiences of past people and why they changed over time. We focus on how human skeletons contribute to our understanding of preindustrial demographic regimes, including when changes took place that led to the world as we know it today. Problems with existing paleodemographic practices are highlighted, as are promising directions for future work. The latter requires both better age estimates and innovative methods to handle data appropriately. Age‐at‐death estimates for adult skeletons are a particular problem, especially for adults over 50 years that undoubtedly are mistakenly underrepresented in published studies of archaeological skeletons. Better age estimates for the entirety of the lifespan are essential to generate realistic distributions of age at death. There are currently encouraging signs that after about a half‐century of intensive, and sometimes contentious, research, paleodemography is poised to contribute much to understandings of evolutionary processes, the structure of past populations, and human‐disease interaction, among other topics.

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Twenty‐first century bioarchaeology: Taking stock and moving forward

Buikstra

DeWitte

Baker

et al. 2022

American Journal of Biological Anthropology

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This article presents outcomes from a Workshop entitled “Bioarchaeology: Taking Stock and Moving Forward,” which was held at Arizona State University (ASU) on March 6–8, 2020. Funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF), the School of Human Evolution and Social Change (ASU), and the Center for Bioarchaeological Research (CBR, ASU), the Workshop's overall goal was to explore reasons why research proposals submitted by bioarchaeologists, both graduate students and established scholars, fared disproportionately poorly within recent NSF Anthropology Program competitions and to offer advice for increasing success. Therefore, this Workshop comprised 43 international scholars and four advanced graduate students with a history of successful grant acquisition, primarily from the United States. Ultimately, we focused on two related aims: (1) best practices for improving research designs and training and (2) evaluating topics of contemporary significance that reverberate through history and beyond as promising trajectories for bioarchaeological research. Among the former were contextual grounding, research question/hypothesis generation, statistical procedures appropriate for small samples and mixed qualitative/quantitative data, the salience of Bayesian methods, and training program content. Topical foci included ethics, social inequality, identity (including intersectionality), climate change, migration, violence, epidemic disease, adaptability/plasticity, the osteological paradox, and the developmental origins of health and disease. Given the profound changes required globally to address decolonization in the 21st century, this concern also entered many formal and informal discussions.

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An informative prior probability distribution of the gompertz parameters for bayesian approaches in paleodemography

Abstract: The Gompertz model can be assumed to accurately estimate the mean life-span and/or the proportion of old people in a population. We suggest that the Strehler-Mildvan correlation can be used as a useful constraint in demographic reconstructions of past human populations.

Cited by 11 publications

References 29 publications

Maximum likelihood estimate of life expectancy in the prehistoric Jomon: Canine pulp volume reduction suggests a longer life expectancy than previously thought

Maximum likelihood estimate of life expectancy in the prehistoric Jomon: Canine pulp volume reduction suggests a longer life expectancy than previously thought

Paleodemography: From archaeology and skeletal age estimation to life in the past

Twenty‐first century bioarchaeology: Taking stock and moving forward

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