An initial study of the dynamic influences and interactions upon levels of sustainability at the global spatial scale

Abstract

This paper conducts an initial determination and evaluation of the fundamental dynamic influences and interactions upon indicated levels and nature of sustainability occurring, at the global spatial scale over the specified period of 2006–2016. This is achieved by the first full application of the Sustainability Dynamics Framework (SDF) to the results of the Sustainable Society Index (SSI). The results indicate that obtained S-values are potentially influenced primarily by a triumvirate of influencing factors – Population Growth, GDP and Greenhouse Gases. A cumulative analysis of indicator categories indicated that Environmental Wellbeing was the dominant influencing category upon obtained S-values for the period 2008–2014, and Anthropospheric Wellbeing was the dominant influence in 2006 and 2016. The analysis concludes that the triumvirate has potentially caused fundamental breaches and dynamic impacts and feedbacks upon the global environment-human relationship and system. Unless the triumvirate is managed and mitigated urgently, then there is a potential realistic risk of unsustainability occurring.

Quantitative and dynamic scenario analysis of SDGs outcomes upon global sustainability 1990–2050

“…Step Actions Glossary: E -Environment; HNI -Human Needs and Interests; S -Sustainability; t -Time; p -time period (e.g., 1990, 1995, 2000) Figure 2. MMS application process for determined proximity-to-target scores of SDGs at global spatial scale, based on and adapting Phillips (2016Phillips ( , 2020Phillips ( , 2022cPhillips ( , 2022aPhillips ( , 2022b) (see Supplemental Figure 3).…”

“…The potential advancement that this paper offers is in respect to the application of the SDF. The SDF was developed with the purpose of being a holistic conceptual and operational sustainability framework, as stated and demonstrated in Phillips (2020Phillips ( , 2022aPhillips ( , 2022bPhillips ( , 2022c in its application to other quantitative-based assessments. Therefore, the SDF application to the Earth3 data offers the opportunity for a consistent, robust, and integral approach in determining and evaluating the potential or actual global sustainability outcomes from the SDGs implementation.…”

“…These independently indicated the significant individual and cumulative detrimental influence and impact of population, GDP and greenhouse gases (GHG) upon the level and nature of sustainability at all spatial-temporal scales. The three influencing factors were collectively termed as 'the triumvirate' by Phillips (2020Phillips ( , 2022c to indicate their individual and cumulative role, influence and impacts. Phillips (2020Phillips ( , 2022c defined the role and interactions of the triumvirate upon detrimentally influencing and impacting on sustainability, within the context of the SDF, as follows: (1) Increases in population levels (size, density, and growth) results in the need for basic and desired goods and services to increase; (2) This results in increased use and/or degradation of available resources and services (environmental and anthropospheric) to fulfil those needs, and thus economic growth and development increases; (3) Consequently, this accelerates GHG emissions from the production and consumption of goods and services in fulfilment of societal needs, and also reduced carbon uptake from flora, fauna and sinks (e.g.…”

Determining the fundamental dynamics of global sustainability in the Anthropocene from a vulnerability perspective

“…the obtained indicated level(s) and nature of sustainability (S) occurring within a defined S-value range of [−1.000 = S = +1.000]; and (ii). the potential influences and interactions occurring upon sustainability (based on Phillips, 2020Phillips, , 2022. As Phillips (2020) states, the SDF achieves this by mathematically integrating and expanding upon four environment-human system and relationship theories -These are: (i).…”

“…(ii). Rate of Change (dE/dt) In Phillips (2020Phillips ( , 2022, the rate of change of the Earth System (dE/ dt) (re: Gaffney and Steffen, 2017) in equations ( 2) and (3) has been discussed within the context of the stated principles in Section D of Figure 4b and equations ( 8) and (11) (Figure 4a). This has involved an objective judgement-based approach to evaluate the nature of dE/dt occurring and its impacts and effects, for example, lag effects, cause-effect mechanisms, feedbacks etc.…”