An Initialization Scheme of Hurricane Models by Vortex Specification

Kurihara, Yoshio; Bender, Morris A.; Ross, Rebecca J.

doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<2030:aisohm>2.0.co;2

Cited by 357 publications

(242 citation statements)

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“…Although the typhoon bogus creates typhoon vortex quite realistically, the vortex does not seem to be exactly adjusted for the JM-AGCM. Kurihara et al (1993) and Bender et al (1993) pointed out that an insufficient initial typhoon vortex leads to a false spin-up for the first one or two days to adjust the initial typhoon structure by a finer resolution model; similarly, our forecast experiments with the typhoon bogus also showed a false spin-up in the early forecast stage, which was remarkably observed with intensity.…”

Section: B Initial Conditionsupporting

confidence: 61%

“…Hence, the typhoon bogus was applied in this study. To avoid such a spin-up, Kurihara et al (1993) introduced an optimum initialization system to generate a vortex which is compatible with the physics and the highresolution model. However, improving the typhoon vortex in the initial condition is beyond the scope of this study and will be a challenging task for the future.…”

Section: B Initial Conditionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Verification of Typhoon Forecasts for a 20 km-mesh High-Resolution Global Model

Murakami

Matsumura

Sakai

et al. 2008

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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In this study, twelve tropical storms between 2002 and 2005 over the western North Pacific Ocean, namely, typhoons, were simulated through medium-range forecast experiments with the 20 km-mesh Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (JM-AGCM). These simulations were compared with the 60 km-mesh JMA Global Spectral Model (GSM) to evaluate differences in resolution. They are verified with the best-track data as an observation. The verification was conducted in terms of estimating error of position, intensifying tendency, radius of 50 knot, 30 knot, and composite wind profile. This paper addresses the importance of such high resolution to predict typhoon's intensity and inner-core structure.As a result, the JM-AGCM shows slightly smaller position error than the GSM. Moreover, much improvement was seen in the intensity prediction. The JM-AGCM outstandingly can both decrease the central sea level pressure and increase maximum wind velocity, while the GSM can not simulate them because of low resolution. The JM-AGCM also shows better intensifying and decaying tendency than the GSM.The verifications of 50 knot and 30 knot radii, and the composite wind profile indicate that the typhoon structure by the JM-AGCM is quite realistic. Moreover, the JM-AGCM expresses the drastic transformation of inner-core wind profile within 100km from the typhoon center more realistically than the GSM. These results indicate that a high resolution global model, such as 20 km-mesh, is vital when discussing the intensity and wind profile of tropical storms.Corresponding author and present affiliation: Hiroyuki Murakami,

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Section: B Initial Conditionsupporting

confidence: 61%

Section: B Initial Conditionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Verification of Typhoon Forecasts for a 20 km-mesh High-Resolution Global Model

Murakami

Matsumura

Sakai

et al. 2008

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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“…In the first, the vortex in the analysis field is entirely replaced (vortex replacement), and in the second, TC wind profiles are derived from TC best track information (wind retrieval) and assimilated. For example, the JMA's operational model (Ueno 1995), and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model, run at NCEP (Kurihara et al 1993), use the replacement strategy, while the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) (Heming et al 1995) and the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NO-GAPS), run by the US Navy (Fiorino et al 1993), use the retrieval approach.…”

Section: Tcr Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Wind Profile Retrievals on the Analysis of Tropical Cyclones in the JRA-25 Reanalysis

Hatsushika

Tsutsui

Fiorino

et al. 2006

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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A new long-term reanalysis project, JRA-25, has set as one of its main goals the realistic representation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the reanalysis. To supplement in situ observations near TCs, wind profile data (TCR data) are retrieved based on best track information and assimilated. This paper addresses the benefits of using TCR data for the analysis of TCs.TC representation in the JRA-25 reanalysis is compared with other reanalysis data, and an experimental reanalysis (Control) without TCR data. The general result is that JRA-25 successfully represents the location and intensity of each TC. Among TC basins in the Northern Hemisphere, the TC representation in the JRA-25 data in the eastern North Pacific, and in the tropical Atlantic, where upper observations are sparse, is superior compared to other datasets that did not assimilate TCR data. In the western North Pacific, especially around Japan and the East China Sea, TCR data give little improvement in TC representation, since conventional upper observations are dense there and upstream of the active TC regions.TC detection rates in the Northern basins and over the entire globe, are computed using an objective procedure from the reanalysis datasets. The rate in JRA-25 is the highest in all basins among the datasets, and consistent through the period. The high qualified TC representation in intensity and location has a positive effect on a flow field, and hydrologic cycle around TCs. Case studies of TC track forecasts for a recurving TC, in which reanalysis data are used as initial conditions, suggest the JRA-25 data are more realistic than the Control. For these reasons, TCR data is effective in representing TCs and surrounding atmospheric conditions in JRA-25.

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“…In order to understand how TOMS ozone made an impact on the track prediction of Hurricane Erin, the differences of steering flow between CTRL and OZ are first examined. For the steering flow calculation, the deep layer mean is first derived using the following formula (Carr and Elsberry, 1990;Velden and Leslie, 1991): Second, the environmental flow is extracted from the mean flow by removing its vortex component using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) scheme (Kurihara et al, 1993). Finally, the steering flow is obtained by averaging the environmental flow within a radius of 500 km from the storm centre.…”

Section: The Role Of Steering Flow In the Prediction Of Hurricane Erimentioning

confidence: 99%

Numerical test of a simple approach for using TOMS total ozone data in hurricane environment

Zou

2008

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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Using a regime-dependent linear regression model that maps TOMS observed total column ozone (O 3 ) into model mean vertically-integrated potential vorticity (MPV ): O 3 = α × MPV + β, where the regression constants α and β are evaluated separately for data in regions strongly and weakly influenced by deep convection/southerly advection, respectively, TOMS ozone data can readily be incorporated into a hurricane forecast model. Case-studies of several hurricanes are conducted applying such a simple regime-dependent linear regression model to TOMS ozone data assimilation. Improvements in the track prediction are shown. A detailed analysis of how TOMS total ozone affects the track prediction is conducted for Hurricane Erin (2001). A significant improvement in the track prediction for Hurricane Erin (2001) using TOMS ozone occurred at about 20 hours into the model forecast, when the control forecast experiences a sudden increase of track error. It is found that such an improvement in the track prediction of Hurricane Erin is mainly due to differences in the steering flows of the two forecast experiments, resulting from the presence of an upstream middlelatitude ozone trough and a downstream low-latitude ozone trough. An examination of the time evolution of these two troughs in both forecast experiments indicates that both troughs became stronger and moved closer to Hurricane Erin with time in the forecast experiment with the assimilation of TOMS ozone data than did those in the control forecast.

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An Initialization Scheme of Hurricane Models by Vortex Specification

Cited by 357 publications

References 0 publications

Verification of Typhoon Forecasts for a 20 km-mesh High-Resolution Global Model

Verification of Typhoon Forecasts for a 20 km-mesh High-Resolution Global Model

Impact of Wind Profile Retrievals on the Analysis of Tropical Cyclones in the JRA-25 Reanalysis

Numerical test of a simple approach for using TOMS total ozone data in hurricane environment

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