An institutional analysis of glacial floods and disaster risk management in the Nepal Himalaya

Thompson, Ian; Shrestha, Milan; Chhetri, Netra; Agusdinata, Datu Buyung

doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101567

Cited by 24 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Proposed ways forward -Interdisciplinary cooperation in GLOF research, consideration of diverse dimensions and drivers of GLOF risk beyond traditional GLOF hazard studies (see Sect. 4.5), connecting natural and social science communities (see Huggel et al, 2020;Carey et al, 2021;Drenkhan et al, 2019;Motschmann et al, 2020b) -Combine disaster risk and water management under a framework of prospective lake water management with adaptive disaster risk planning considering synergies and conflicts of GLOF risk reduction measures with human water use (Haeberli and Drenkhan, 2022;Motschmann et al, 2020b) -Work with local communities, decision-makers and stakeholders and their involvement in the GLOF risk analysis process from the beginning (knowledge co-production, experience exchange, bottom-up and community-centred approaches; see Thompson et al, 2020;Matti and Ögmundardóttir, 2021;Haeberli and Drenkhan, 2022;and Sect. 4.6) -Use a consensus-based approach to identify high-priority lakes for risk management, drawing upon the full range of published GLOF hazard and risk studies in any given region (e.g.…”

Section: Participation Management and Governance Of Glofsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021): a research community perspective

Emmer

Allen

Carey

et al. 2022

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are among the most concerning consequences of retreating glaciers in mountain ranges worldwide. GLOFs have attracted significant attention amongst scientists and practitioners in the past 2 decades, with particular interest in the physical drivers and mechanisms of GLOF hazard and in socioeconomic and other human-related developments that affect vulnerabilities to GLOF events. This increased research focus on GLOFs is reflected in the gradually increasing number of papers published annually. This study offers an overview of recent GLOF research by analysing 594 peer-reviewed GLOF studies published between 2017 and 2021 (Web of Science and Scopus databases), reviewing the content and geographical focus as well as other characteristics of GLOF studies. This review is complemented with perspectives from the first GLOF conference (7–9 July 2021, online) where a global GLOF research community of major mountain regions gathered to discuss the current state of the art of integrated GLOF research. Therefore, representatives from 17 countries identified and elaborated trends and challenges and proposed possible ways forward to navigate future GLOF research, in four thematic areas: (i) understanding GLOFs – timing and processes; (ii) modelling GLOFs and GLOF process chains; (iii) GLOF risk management, prevention and warning; and (iv) human dimensions of GLOFs and GLOF attribution to climate change.

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Section: Participation Management and Governance Of Glofsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021): a research community perspective

Emmer

Allen

Carey

et al. 2022

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Proglacial lakes are increasing in number and areal extent globally (Carrivick and Tweed, 2013;Shugar et al, 2020). Many recent regional studies have concentrated on the Himalaya (e.g., Komori, 2008;King et al, 2018King et al, , 2019Brun et al, 2019;Falaschi et al, 2019;Maurer et al, 2019;Tsutaki et al, 2019;Zhang et al, 2019;Kumar et al, 2020;Luo et al, 2020) partly due to the importance of glaciers there for water resources and partly due to the threat posed to downstream communities and infrastructure by glacial outburst floods (GLOFS) or "jökulhlaups" (Carrivick and Rushmer, 2006;Carrivick and Tweed, 2016;Dubey and Goyal, 2020;Thompson et al, 2020;Veh et al, 2020). Examples of studies documenting increasing number and area of proglacial lakes from other regions of the world include southern Iceland (Schomacker, 2010;Guðmundsson et al, 2019), western Greenland (Carrivick and Quincey, 2014), central Tibet (Wang et al, 2013), Austria (Buckel et al, 2018) and south America (Wilson et al, 2018;Emmer et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Toward Numerical Modeling of Interactions Between Ice-Marginal Proglacial Lakes and Glaciers

et al. 2020

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Global climate change is evidently manifest in disappearing mountain glaciers and receding and thinning ice sheet margins. Concern about contemporaneous proglacial lake development has spurred an emerging area of research seeking to quantitatively understand lake -glacier interactions. This perspectives article identifies spatiotemporal disparity between the coverage of field data, remote sensing observations and numerical modeling efforts. Throughout, an overview of the physical effects of lakes on glaciers and on ice sheet margins is provided, drawing evidence together from very recent and high-impact studies of both modern glaciology and of the Quaternary record. We identify and discuss six challenges for numerical modeling of lake -glacier interactions, namely that there are meltwater exchanges between glaciers and ice-marginal lakes, lake bathymetry and glacier bed topography are often unknown, lake -glacier interactions affect the longitudinal stress regime of glaciers, lake water temperature affects glacier melting but is very poorly constrained, the interactions persist with considerable spatio-temporal variability and with boundary migration, and data for model parameterization and validation is extremely scarce. Overall, we contend that numerical modeling is a key frontier in the cryospheric sciences to deliver process understanding of lake -glacier interactions.

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“…With regard to the growing GLOF threat, the long-term lake hazard assessment of this study can serve as the groundwork for future research into regional or glacier specific hazards in order to provide further information for planning and mitigation measures. Himalayan communities often struggle with effectively planning, managing and funding mitigation projects (Thompson and others, 2020). Following the continuing retreat of glaciers in most parts of HMA, the larger overdeepenings under glacier tongues at lower altitudes will probably become ice free and fill up due to glacial melt in the near future.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future glacial lakes in High Mountain Asia: an inventory and assessment of hazard potential from surrounding slopes

2021

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Bedrock overdeepenings exposed by continued glacial retreat can store precipitation and meltwater, potentially leading to the formation of new proglacial lakes. These lakes may pose threats of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in high mountain areas, particularly if new lakes form in geomorphological setups prone to triggering events such as landslides or moraine collapses. We present the first complete inventory for future glacial lakes in High Mountain Asia by computing the subglacial bedrock for ~100 000 glaciers and estimating overdeepening area, volume and impact hazard for the larger potential lakes. We detect 25 285 overdeepenings larger than 104 m2 with a volume of 99.1 ± 28.6 km3 covering an area of 2683 ± 773.8 km2. For the 2700 overdeepenings larger than 105 m2, we assess the lake predisposition for mass-movement impacts that could trigger a GLOF by estimating the hazard of material detaching from surrounding slopes. Our findings indicate a shift in lake area, volume and GLOF hazard from the southwestern Himalayan region toward the Karakoram. The results of this study can be used for anticipating emerging threats and potentials connected to glacial lakes and as a basis for further studies at suspected GLOF hazard hotspots.

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An institutional analysis of glacial floods and disaster risk management in the Nepal Himalaya

Cited by 24 publications

References 26 publications

Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021): a research community perspective

Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021): a research community perspective

Toward Numerical Modeling of Interactions Between Ice-Marginal Proglacial Lakes and Glaciers

Future glacial lakes in High Mountain Asia: an inventory and assessment of hazard potential from surrounding slopes

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