An integrated approach to energy prospects for North America and the rest of the world

Bassi, Andrea M.; Powers, Robert; Schoenberg, William

doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2009.04.005

Cited by 20 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…The model, however, does indicate that it is a general feature of these systems that lower EROEI is associated with gradually lower rates of extraction. These result are in qualitative agreement with the known data on the EROEI of oil extraction (e.g., see [28]) which indicate a gradual decline from values of about 100 at the beginning of the extraction cycle to values of about 10 at present.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

“…Another system dynamics approaches to the model was reported by Davidsen et al [27]. About the effect of EROEI on production curves, it is worth citing the paper by Bassi et al [28] which examines the whole world's energy production. Our approach is also related to the "cheese slicer" model described in the recent paper by Hall et al [29] which can also be seen as a "mind sized" model.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Simple Interpretation of Hubbert’s Model of Resource Exploitation

Bardi

Lavacchi

2009

Energies

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Abstract:The well known "Hubbert curve" assumes that the production curve of a crude oil in a free market economy is "bell shaped" and symmetric. The model was first applied in the 1950s as a way of forecasting the production of crude oil in the US lower 48 states. Today, variants of the model are often used for describing the worldwide production of crude oil, which is supposed to reach a global production peak ("peak oil") and to decline afterwards. The model has also been shown to be generally valid for mineral resources other than crude oil and also for slowly renewable biological resources such as whales. Despite its widespread use, Hubbert's modelis sometimes criticized for being arbitrary and its underlying assumptions are rarely examined. In the present work, we use a simple model to generate the bell shaped curve curve using the smallest possible number of assumptions, taking also into account the "Energy Return to Energy Invested" (EROI or EROEI) parameter. We show that this model can reproduce several historical cases, even for resources other than crude oil, and provide a useful tool for understanding the general mechanisms of resource exploitation and the future of energy production in the world's economy.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Simple Interpretation of Hubbert’s Model of Resource Exploitation

Bardi

Lavacchi

2009

Energies

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“…The Dutch energy transition SD model was built based on 4 well tested system dynamics models on the energy transition issue [24][25][26][27][28]. Those models were translated and modified to fit in to the objectives of the research.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving Renewable Energy Transition Acceptance: A Simulation Gaming Approach on a Multi Actor Setting in the Netherlands

Sutrisno

Vennix

Syaifudin

2015

MST

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The Netherlands have tried very hard to increase their renewable energy sources (RES) shares to fulfill the European Union target in 2050. However, RES performance did not show the expected result as the performance declined in 2009 producing even wider gap compare to the target. The Dutch government's tried to incorporate all interested stakeholders by forming the Dutch energy transition task force. Nevertheless, the task force's result is also not showing a desirable trend. Key reasons behind the Dutch low RES performance are the lack of shared understanding and positive attitude toward RES development among interested actors. This research uses a role-playing game to increase shared understanding and positive attitude within the actors. The game set players in a competing role as the government, an energy company and the end user. Players were given the ability to make decisions on their respective area. A pilot study was then conducted to measure the effectiveness of the game. The pilot study showed the game increased actor's individual understanding and shared understanding. Moreover, it also showed that the game increases actor's positive attitude toward RES development in the Netherlands. AbstrakMeningkatkan Penerimaan Transisi Energi Terbarukan: Pendekatan Simulasi Permainan pada Situasi MultiAktor di Belanda. Belanda telah berusaha sangat keras untuk meningkatkan sumber energi terbarukan (RES) untuk memenuhi target Uni Eropa pada tahun 2050. Namun, kinerja RES tidak menunjukkan hasil yang diharapkan karena kinerja menurun pada tahun 2009, yang kemudian memperlebar jarak dari target. Pemerintah Belanda telah mencoba untuk menggabungkan semua pemangku kepentingan dengan membentuk gugus tugas transisi energi Belanda. Namun demikian, hasil satuan tugas juga tidak menunjukkan tren yang diinginkan. Alasan utama di balik kinerja RES yang rendah di Belanda adalah kurangnya pemahaman bersama dan sikap positif terhadap pengembangan RES di antara para pemangku kepentingan. Penelitian ini menggunakan permainan role-playing untuk meningkatkan pemahaman bersama dan sikap positif pada aktor. Permainan ini menjadikan para pemain bersaing dengan satu sama lain sebagai pemerintah, perusahaan energi, dan pengguna akhir. Pemain dapat membuat keputusan pada daerah masing-masing. Sebuah studi percontohan kemudian dilakukan untuk mengukur efektivitas permainan. Studi percontohan memperlihatkan bahwa pemahaman individual dan pemahaman bersama para aktor meningkat. Selain itu, studi ini juga memperlihatkan bahwa permainan meningkatkan sikap positif aktor terhadap pengembangan RES di Belanda.

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“…Despite confronting similar energy issues, every country is characterized by a different context, be it social, economic or environmental [4], that influences the way different nations deal with climate change and other energy-related issues [3,5]. Energy issues should therefore be contextualized to effectively support policy formulation and evaluation [1].…”

Section: Open Accessmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While the analysis carried out with conventional linear programming and optimization models is limited by narrow boundaries and lack of dynamics [3,7], computer simulation models based on System Dynamics could effectively support the analysis of both context and policies [8]. The use of these tools, such as Millennium Institute's Threshold 21 (T21) energy models [3,5,[9][10][11], provides an integrated analysis of the following characteristics of the policy-making environment: -Despite energy issues being global, regional and national, policy solutions are designed and implemented at the national level [1,3]. -Despite interconnected and cross-sectoral energy issues, policies are narrowly focused on the energy sector while having an impact on society, economy and environment [3,5,6].…”

Section: Open Accessmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Use of an Integrated Approach to Support Energy and Climate Policy Formulation and Evaluation

Bassi

2010

Energies

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Abstract:With the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 national leaders have started investigating options for reducing carbon emissions within national borders [1]. Despite confronting similar energy issues, every country that adopted the Kyoto Protocol has a unique energy strategy [1,2] -being characterized by a different context, social, economic or environmental that influences the way different nations deal with climate change and other energy-related issues. Finding that currently available energy models are often too detailed or narrowly focused to inform longer-term policy formulation and evaluation holistically [3], the present study proposes the utilization of an integrated cross-sectoral medium to longer-term research and modeling approach, incorporating various methodologies to minimize exogenous assumptions and endogenously represent the key drivers of the system analyzed. The framework proposed includes feedback, delays and non-linearity and focuses on structure, scenarios and policies, requires a profound customization of the model that goes beyond a new parameterization. The inclusion of social and environmental factors, in addition to economic ones, all unique to the geographical area analyzed, allows for a wider analysis of the implication of policies by identifying potential side effect or longer-term bottlenecks for socio-economic development and environmental preservation arising from cross-sectoral relations.

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An integrated approach to energy prospects for North America and the rest of the world

Cited by 20 publications

References 11 publications

A Simple Interpretation of Hubbert’s Model of Resource Exploitation

A Simple Interpretation of Hubbert’s Model of Resource Exploitation

Improving Renewable Energy Transition Acceptance: A Simulation Gaming Approach on a Multi Actor Setting in the Netherlands

Evaluating the Use of an Integrated Approach to Support Energy and Climate Policy Formulation and Evaluation

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