An Integrated Assessment of Emissions, Air Quality, and Public Health Impacts of China’s Transition to Electric Vehicles

Abstract

Electric vehicles (EVs) are a promising pathway to providing cleaner personal mobility. China provides substantial supports to increase EV market share. This study provides an extensive analysis of the currently unclear environmental and health benefits of these incentives at the provincial level. EVs in China have modest cradle-to-gate CO 2 benefits (on average 29%) compared to conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), but have similar carbon emissions relative to hybrid electric vehicles. Well-to-wheel air pollutant emissions assessment shows that emissions associated with ICEVs are mainly from gasoline production, not the tailpipe, suggesting tighter emissions controls on refineries are needed to combat air pollution problems effectively. By integrating a vehicle fleet model into policy scenario analysis, we quantify the policy impacts associated with the passenger vehicles in the major Chinese provinces: broader EV penetration, especially combined with cleaner power generation, could deliver greater air quality and health benefits, but not necessarily significant climate change mitigation. The total value to society of the climate and mortality benefits in 2030 is found to be comparable to a prior estimate of the EV policy's economic costs.

Comparison of Electric Vehicle Lithium-Ion Battery Recycling Allocation Methods

“…Power lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are core components of EVs and a major factor in determining the performance, cost, and environmental impact of a vehicle. , With the rapid growth in global demand, concerns have arisen about the availability of key raw metals for batteries, particularly lithium, nickel, and cobalt. − The recycling of spent power batteries is feasible and necessary from the perspectives of resource scarcity, environmental impact, and economic benefits. − …”

Incorporating Health Cobenefits into Province-Driven Climate Policy: A Case of Banning New Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle Sales in China

“…Second, under limited computing resources, it is difficult to use the chemical transport model (CTM), a classic simulation method, to individually simulate perturbations to the concentration due to each provincial policy. Using the reduced complexity model here, although we simplified some chemical processes (e.g., the contribution from hydrocarbon), previous studies have used and validated this reliable tool. ,, Moreover, we could not include the ozone-related health impacts, which may also be important but no more than 5% of the PM 2.5 -related health impacts in China. ,, Finally, the implementation order of the provincial ban on the sale of ICEVs is a complex issue considering not only climate and health cobenefits but also other regional impacts (physical health, heavy metal pollution, etc.) and realistic factors (economic development, cost, infrastructure deployment, zero-emission zone, the will of stakeholders, etc.).…”

“…10,46,47 Moreover, we could not include the ozone-related health impacts, which may also be important but no more than 5% of the PM 2.5 -related health impacts in China. 15,19,54 Finally, the implementation order of the provincial ban on the sale of ICEVs is a complex issue considering not only climate and health cobenefits but also other regional impacts (physical health, 55 heavy metal pollution, 56 etc.) and realistic factors (economic development, cost, 57 infrastructure deployment, 58 zero-emission zone, 59 the will of stakeholders, 60 etc.).…”

“…As electrification is a widely recognized pathway to replace ICEVs in the private vehicle sector in China, 25−28 cobenefits of provincial-level ban policies are mainly the tradeoffs between two aspects: the health benefits contributed by the phasing-out of ICEVs and the health damage brought by the new sales of electric vehicles (EVs) to fulfill transportation needs. 15,16,19,29 The former aspect (which results in the reduced use of gasoline or diesel) is well-understood, while the latter needs further explanation. The ban policy would lead to an increased number of EVs and a higher demand for electricity generation, 30−32 so there would be sectoral and regional transfers in the effect of the ban policy.…”

“…For developing countries that are facing multiple challenges from carbon reduction, air pollution control, and public health improvement, − it is particularly important for them to incorporate health cobenefits from coabated air pollution into climate policy-making so that the efficiency of climate policy can be greatly boosted. − One approach to make a health-oriented climate policy is to rank the regions or emission sources in the order of highest health cobenefits per ton of carbon reduction to the lowest, with the aim of suggesting a policy implementation order at the regional or emission source level . This approach has been used in several previous studies, particularly in the electricity generation sector. − For the transport sector, which accounts for 23% of global energy-related CO 2 emissions and is expected to increase more rapidly in developing countries, existing studies only quantified the health cobenefits of decarbonizing the transport sector under different scenarios − and did not explore how to optimize climate policy with the aim of maximizing the health cobenefits . In this study, we choose private vehicles in the road transport sector in China as an example to incorporate health cobenefits into province-driven carbon mitigation actions and further suggest the order of provincial policy implementation.…”