An integrated assessment of runoff dynamics in the Amu Darya River Basin: Confronting climate change and multiple human activities, 1960–2017

Hu, Yanan; Duan, Weili; Chen, Yaning; Zou, Shan; Kayumba, Patient Mindje; Sahu, Netrananda

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126905

Cited by 52 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…In recent years, scholars from various countries have conducted a lot of research on runoff variation and attribution analysis (Guo et al 2020). Miao et al (2011) studied the correlation between precipitation and runoff in the base period at seven river gauging stations since 1970 by using the hydrographic method, and clarified the contribution rate of climate change and human activities to the reduction of runoff in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River; Pirnia et al (2019) applied the double cumulative curve method to monitor and analyze the impact of climate variability and human activities changes in stream flow of the Haraz River basin in northern Iran from 1975 to 2010; Patterson et al (2013) used Budyko curves to ascribe changes in streamflow due to climate and human factors between two time periods in both natural and human-modified basins in the South Atlantic; Hu et al (2021) assessed the long-term runoff dynamics of Amu Darya River basin applying the elasticity coefficient method coupled with the water balance and Budyko framework; Santra Mitra et al (2021) quantified the relative contribution of climate change and land-use change to runoff response in the Kangshabati River basin of West Bengal by using SWAT model; Lv et al (2022) calculated the effects of climate variation and human activities on streamflow change in a poorly gauged arid inland basin based on SWAT and Budyko-based Mezentsev-Choudhurdy-Yang model driven by multi-source precipitation datasets.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of runoff variation and driving mechanism in Huangfuchuan River Basin in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, China

Huang

Qiu

2022

Appl Water Sci

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To address the prominent problem of declining runoff in many rivers around the world, studying the law of runoff change and attribution analysis is very important for the planning and management of watershed water resources and has practical significance for solving the imbalance between supply and demand of watershed water resources and maintaining the healthy development of rivers. Three commonly used coupled water-energy balance equations based on Budyko hypothesis are selected to estimate the elasticity coefficient of runoff change to each driving factor, and the contribution rate of different factors to runoff change in the study area is quantified by the total differential method and the complementary method, respectively. The results show that the runoff of Huangfuchuan River basin showed a significant decreasing trend from 1954 to 2015, and the runoff mutation points were 1979 and 1996; in the alteration period I (1979–1996), precipitation was the main factor leading to the runoff reduction in Huangfuchuan River basin, followed by the influence of underlying surface; the contribution rate of underlying surface to runoff alterations ranged from 63.7% to 65.46%; the impact of potential evapotranspiration was slightly smaller. In the alteration period II (1997–2015), the underlying surface played a dominant role in runoff reduction of Huangfuchuan River basin. The contribution rate of the underlying surface to runoff change ranged from 80.21% to 86.34%, followed by precipitation, and the potential evapotranspiration had the least impact. The impact of human activities on the whole watershed increased with the passage of time. The land use change, the overall increase of NDVI (vegetation cover) and the construction of water conservation projects are important reasons for the reduction of runoff in Huangfuchuan River basin.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of runoff variation and driving mechanism in Huangfuchuan River Basin in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, China

Huang

Qiu

2022

Appl Water Sci

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“…These changes can be attributed to both natural and man‐made factors such as volcanic eruptions, changes in solar energy, and imbalance created by the industrial revolution, disrupting the symmetry of the hydrological cycle. Climate change has the ability to greatly increase potential evapotranspiration, affecting not just plant growth mechanisms but also disturbing water balance (Hu et al ., 2021). Rainfall and temperature trends have been examined in several locations around the world.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long term (1901−2021) trends and prediction of climatic variability in selected agro‐ecological zones of Himachal Pradesh using coupled statistical and machine learning approaches

Thakur,

Kumar,

Tiwari

et al. 2024

Singap J Trop Geogr

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This study analyses the trends of changing climatic elements in the hydrological regime of the Indian Himalayan Region with specific focus on Agro‐ecological zone II & III of Himachal Pradesh for the period of 1901−2021. The upper, middle, and lower catchment areas of Sutlej River Basin were studied to reveal regional trends in climatic parameters. The Mann‐Kendall test and Sen Slope analysis were used to estimate annual and seasonal trends and their magnitude. The results showed a significant decreasing trend in the lower catchment area, with a break point year estimated to be 1953 for the entire basin. Two blocks of analysis, 1901−1953 and 1954−2021, showed significant variations. Annual rainfall data revealed a statistically significant decreasing trend at different stations. The lower catchment area received a significant increase in rainfall compared to higher altitude stations. In terms of seasonal variation, the pre‐monsoon season showed a significant decrease, while the entire basin recorded a significant increase in average monthly temperature. The study concludes by generating future time series predictions using an ANN model for the period of 2022−2050. Overall, the study's findings indicate a significant change in climatic variables with signs of increasing monthly temperatures and decreasing annual rainfall.

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“…The region is characterized by a warm climate, especially global warming has exacerbated this. As a result, it leads to a sharp increase in water consumption in all sectors of the economy and mainly in the country's agriculture [1][2][3][4]. Uzbekistan is a vivid example of the region mentioned above.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics of morphometric and hydraulic parameters of the Amudarya River channel downstream the Tuyamuyun hydroscheme

Maalem

Хujakulov

2023

E3S Web of Conf.

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The construction of large water reservoirs on level rivers has dramatically changed the nature and dynamics of channel processes in the upstream and downstream rivers. The purpose of the research is to study the relationship between the morphometry of the riverbed and the parameters of the waterworks rigged by the reservoir. To analyze the dynamics of the flow's channel morphometry and hydraulic elements, the lower course of the Amu Darya River, which is characterized by intense channel processes, was chosen. The study was carried out using field data on the Tuyamuyun gauge, located 1.8 km below the hydroelectric complex. The period for the last 25 years is covered, and 6 multi-year periods are selected from these. As a result of data analysis from long-term field studies and hydrometric measurements on the Tuyamuyun hydraulic section of the Amu Darya River, functional relationships have been established between the morphometric parameters of the channel and the hydraulic parameters of the flow. The relationship between the roughness of the channel and water flow is ambiguous. This is explained by the fact that the target is in the zone of the general spreading of the channel, and the bottom of the channel was observed to sink. When establishing the hydraulic resistance of the downstream, i.e., the relationship between the morphometric parameters of the channel and the hydraulic parameters of the flow, it is possible to predict changes in the water level and the state of water intake facilities. According to forecasts, it is possible to determine the type of event that allows for the supply of estimated flow rates through water intake facilities located in general erosion of the Tuyamuyun water reservoir.

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An integrated assessment of runoff dynamics in the Amu Darya River Basin: Confronting climate change and multiple human activities, 1960–2017

Cited by 52 publications

References 66 publications

Analysis of runoff variation and driving mechanism in Huangfuchuan River Basin in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, China

Analysis of runoff variation and driving mechanism in Huangfuchuan River Basin in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, China

Long term (1901−2021) trends and prediction of climatic variability in selected agro‐ecological zones of Himachal Pradesh using coupled statistical and machine learning approaches

Dynamics of morphometric and hydraulic parameters of the Amudarya River channel downstream the Tuyamuyun hydroscheme

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