An integrated data-driven solar wind – CME numerical framework for space weather forecasting

Narechania, Nishant M.; Nikolić, Lisa; Freret, Lucie; Sterck, Hans De; Groth, C. P. T.

doi:10.1051/swsc/2020068

Cited by 13 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 106 publications

(199 reference statements)

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“…Moreover, the CME structure is regarded as mass-conserved at this stage. Although these assumptions are probably oversimplifications, they have been widely used in previous CME studies as reasonable assumptions (e.g., Dobrzycka et al 2003;Aschwanden 2009;Owens et al 2017;Narechania et al 2021).…”

Section: Geometry and Self-similar Expansion Of Cme Structuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can We Detect Coronal Mass Ejections through Asymmetries of Sun-as-a-star Extreme-ultraviolet Spectral Line Profiles?

Yang

Bai

Chen

et al. 2022

ApJS

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Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the largest-scale eruptive phenomena in the solar system. Associated with enormous plasma ejections and energy releases, CMEs have an important impact on the solar–terrestrial environment. Accurate predictions of the arrival times of CMEs at the Earth depend on precise measurements of their 3D velocities, which can be achieved by using simultaneous line-of-sight (LOS) and plane-of-sky (POS) observations. Besides the POS information from routine coronagraph and extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) imaging observations, spectroscopic observations could unveil the physical properties of CMEs, including their LOS velocities. We propose that spectral line asymmetries measured by Sun-as-a-star spectrographs can be used for routine detections of CMEs and estimations of their LOS velocities during their early propagation phases. Such observations can also provide important clues for the detection of CMEs on other solar-like stars. However, few studies have concentrated on whether we can detect CME signals and accurately diagnose CME properties through Sun-as-a-star spectral observations. In this work, we construct a geometric CME model and derive the analytical expressions for full disk-integrated EUV line profiles during CMEs. For different CME properties and instrumental configurations, the full disk-integrated line profiles are synthesized. We further evaluate the detectability and diagnostic potential of CMEs from the synthetic line profiles. Our investigations provide important constraints on the future design of Sun-as-a-star spectrographs for CME detections through EUV line asymmetries.

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Section: Geometry and Self-similar Expansion Of Cme Structuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can We Detect Coronal Mass Ejections through Asymmetries of Sun-as-a-star Extreme-ultraviolet Spectral Line Profiles?

Yang

Bai

Chen

et al. 2022

ApJS

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“…To find the optimal value of β for a given CR, we calculated the solar wind profile at 1 AU (V HU X ) by varying β from 0.75 to 1.75 in 20 equal steps and compared it with observed data (V OBS ). For this initial study we restricted the range to ±0.5 around the most used value of β i.e., 1.25 e.g., (van der Holst et al 2010;Riley et al 2015;Pomoell & Poedts 2018;Narechania et al 2021). To statistically evaluate the best fit, we used Pearson correlation coefficient (cc), root mean square error (rmse) and normalized difference of standard deviation of V HU X and V OBS (nsd).…”

Section: Adapted Wsa Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…employ an empirical relation of solar wind speed based on the observation of coronal holes. On the other hand, simulation models (e.g., MAS (Riley et al 2001), ENLIL (Odstrcil 2003), SWMF (Tóth et al 2005), SWIM (Feng et al 2010), SUSANOO (Shiota et al 2014), EUHFORIA (Pomoell & Poedts 2018), Narechania et al (2021) etc.) are physics-based models which use photospheric magnetograms to determine plasma properties in the heliosphere.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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SWASTi-SW: Space Weather Adaptive SimulaTion framework for Solar Wind and its relevance to ADITYA-L1 mission

Mayank¹,

Vaidya²,

Chakrabarty³

2022

Preprint

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Solar wind streams, acting as background, govern the propagation of space weather drivers in the heliosphere, which induce geomagnetic storm activities. Therefore, predictions of the solar wind parameters are the core of space weather forecasts. This work presents an indigenous three-dimensional (3D) Solar Wind model (SWASTi-SW). This numerical framework for forecasting the ambient solar wind is based on a well-established scheme that uses a semi-empirical coronal model and a physics-based inner heliospheric model. This study demonstrates a more generalized version of Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) relation, which provides a speed profile input to the heliospheric domain. Line-of-sight observations of GONG and HMI magnetograms are used as inputs for the coronal model, which in turn, provides the solar wind plasma properties at 0.1 AU. These results are then used as an initial boundary condition for the magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model of the inner heliosphere to compute the solar wind properties up to 2.1 AU. Along with the validation run for multiple Carrington rotations, the effect of variation of specific heat ratio and study of stream interaction region (SIR) is also presented. This work showcases the multi-directional features of SIRs and provides synthetic measurements for potential observations from the Solar Wind Ion Spectrometer (SWIS) subsystem of Aditya Solar wind Particle EXperiment (ASPEX) payload on-board ISRO's upcoming solar mission Aditya-L1.

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“…Riley et al, 2006). These coronal solutions are then used to drive heliospheric models out to Earth orbit (Riley, Linker, and Mikic, 2001;Odstrcil, 2003;Merkin et al, 2016;Narechania et al, 2021). Methods to produce physically consistent photospheric magnetic-field conditions for the unobserved side of the Sun have been developed (Hickmann et al, 2015), which potentially allow relaxation of the steady-state approximation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rate of Change of Large-Scale Solar-Wind Structure

et al. 2022

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Quantifying the rate at which the large-scale solar-wind structure evolves is important for both understanding the physical processes occurring in the corona and for space-weather forecast improvement. Models of the global corona and heliosphere typically assume that the ambient solar-wind structure is steady and corotates with the Sun, which is generally expected to be more valid at solar minimum than solar maximum, but this has not been well tested. Similarly, assimilation of solar-wind observations into models requires quantitative knowledge of how the reliability of the observations changes with age. In this study we examine 25 years of near-Earth in situ solar-wind observations and 45 years of observation-constrained solar-wind simulations to determine how much the 1-AU solar-wind speed, $V$ V , and radial magnetic-field component, $B_{R}$ B R , vary between consecutive Carrington rotations (CRs). For the in situ spacecraft observations, we find the rate of change of $V$ V and $B_{R}$ B R is similar during solar maximum and minimum, particularly when transient interplanetary coronal mass ejections are removed from the data. This is somewhat counter to expectations. Conversely, the rate of change in $V$ V and $B_{R}$ B R obtained from global heliospheric simulations is strongly correlated with the solar cycle, with the corona and heliosphere being more variable at solar maximum, as expected. Limiting the analysis of the simulations to the solar equatorial region, however, strongly reduces the difference between solar maximum and minimum, bringing the result into close agreement with the in situ observations. This latitudinal sensitivity is explained in terms of the global solar-wind structure over the solar cycle. For the purposes of assimilating in-ecliptic solar-wind observations, we suggest the uncertainty in $V$ V should increase by around 3 km s−1 per day since the observation was made and 0.1 nT per day for $B_{R}$ B R . For observations made at higher latitude, the effect of observation age will be solar-cycle dependent.

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An integrated data-driven solar wind – CME numerical framework for space weather forecasting

Cited by 13 publications

References 106 publications

Can We Detect Coronal Mass Ejections through Asymmetries of Sun-as-a-star Extreme-ultraviolet Spectral Line Profiles?

Can We Detect Coronal Mass Ejections through Asymmetries of Sun-as-a-star Extreme-ultraviolet Spectral Line Profiles?

SWASTi-SW: Space Weather Adaptive SimulaTion framework for Solar Wind and its relevance to ADITYA-L1 mission

Rate of Change of Large-Scale Solar-Wind Structure

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