An Integrated Dynamical Modeling Perspective for Infrastructure Resilience

Abstract

This paper considers a dynamical way to connect resilience outcomes and processes by nesting process-based approaches inside a controlled dynamical system under resource constraints. To illustrate this, we use a dynamical model of electric power generation to show the complementary aspects of outcome, resources, and process-based approaches for analyzing infrastructure resilience. The results of this stylized model show that adaptation is the most influential process and that for monitoring to be efficient it must account for associated costs. Beyond these specific results, we suggest that nesting outcome-and process-based approaches within a dynamical controlled framework can be very useful and complementary for infrastructure managers and designers tasked with effectively allocating resources for enhancing system resilience.

Finite State Machine Modelling to Facilitate the Resilience of Infrastructures: Reflections

“…This systemic approach is reflected by the definition given in [16], where resilience is considered as "the intrinsic ability of a system to adjust its functioning prior to, during, or following changes and disturbances, so that it can sustain required operations under both expected and unexpected conditions". Hollnagel elaborated a conceptual framework to accentuate the four cornerstones to become a resilient system [10,17]: Monitoring to "know what to look for", anticipating "to know what to expect", responding "to know what to do", and learning "from what happened". A resulting challenge is the necessity to transform these conceptual requirements, e.g., the capability to perform "sensing-adapting-anticipating-learning", into practicable and assessable processes [10].…”

“…Hollnagel elaborated a conceptual framework to accentuate the four cornerstones to become a resilient system [10,17]: Monitoring to "know what to look for", anticipating "to know what to expect", responding "to know what to do", and learning "from what happened". A resulting challenge is the necessity to transform these conceptual requirements, e.g., the capability to perform "sensing-adapting-anticipating-learning", into practicable and assessable processes [10]. Consequently, it is of uttermost importance to have suitable models at one's disposal that sufficiently consider all factors involved that may affect the resilience of an infrastructure during the design, life cycle, and beyond [1,2,5,[10][11][12][13]16,[18][19][20][21].…”

“…In general, there is a great variety of resilience definitions. They differ in perspective, scope, and objective, and ultimately result in different approaches to describe, evaluate, and enhance the resilience of infrastructure systems [3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14]. The variety of resilience definitions and the large application range of resilience developments has already led to a wide spectrum of resilience models.…”

Will Updated Electricity Infrastructure Security Protect the Grid? A Case Study Modeling Electrical Substation Attacks

“…One of the main goals of the group is to have physical and cyber security data and standardization metrics available from a centralized source so all members have access to the same information and incidents are easily shared [17]. NERC's emphasis on communication and information sharing is in line with other research relating to critical infrastructure risk management and disaster resiliency as well [9,11].…”

“…Past research in this area has focused on methodologies to develop baseline standards, indicators, and guides to assist in infrastructure and community resiliency standards and risk mitigation strategies. For example, in their 2018 research, Mathias et al outlined dynamic modeling approaches to help better monitor, inform, and prepare those in charge of critical infrastructure management in the wake of threats [9]. Better communication across stakeholders is often included as an appropriate step in risk management and resiliency planning for natural disasters [10,11], and is seen as a key step in NERC's infrastructure security improvements.…”