An Integrated Framework for Environmental Multi‐Impact Spatial Risk Analysis

Abstract

Quantitative risk analysis is being extensively employed to support policymakers and provides a strong conceptual framework for evaluating decision alternatives under uncertainty. Many problems involving environmental risks are, however, of a spatial nature, i.e., containing spatial impacts, spatial vulnerabilities, and spatial risk-mitigation alternatives. Recent developments in multicriteria spatial analysis have enabled the assessment and aggregation of multiple impacts, supporting policymakers in spatial evaluation problems. However, recent attempts to conduct spatial multicriteria risk analysis have generally been weakly conceptualized, without adequate roots in quantitative risk analysis. Moreover, assessments of spatial risk often neglect the multidimensional nature of spatial impacts (e.g., social, economic, human) that are typically occurring in such decision problems. The aim of this article is therefore to suggest a conceptual quantitative framework for environmental multicriteria spatial risk analysis based on expected multi-attribute utility theory. The framework proposes: (i) the formal assessment of multiple spatial impacts; (ii) the aggregation of these multiple spatial impacts; (iii) the assessment of spatial vulnerabilities and probabilities of occurrence of adverse events; (iv) the computation of spatial risks; (v) the assessment of spatial risk mitigation alternatives; and (vi) the design and comparison of spatial risk mitigation alternatives (e.g., reductions of vulnerabilities and/or impacts). We illustrate the use of the framework in practice with a case study based on a flood-prone area in northern Italy.

GIS‐Based Integration of Social Vulnerability and Level 3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment to Advance Emergency Preparedness, Planning, and Response for Severe Nuclear Power Plant Accidents

“…The scope of Level 3 PRA and EPPR is inherently spatial, with interrelated events that have strong spatial components, and therefore “geographical space is a valuable framework for reasoning about many problems that arise in the context of emergency management” (Cova, ). Originally used by geographers, GIS has been incorporated into many areas of research applicable to emergency management, such as natural hazard analysis (Ferretti & Montibeller, ), identification of evacuation routes, and infrastructure planning (Cova, ). GIS tools are well suited for storing and analyzing data relating to the built environment, and the vulnerability of the built environment to natural hazards.…”

Advances in Spatial Risk Analysis

“…The article by Ferretti and Montibeller (2019) in this special issue proposes an integrated framework for spatial risk analysis when the considered impacts are multidimensional in nature. The proposed framework decomposes the problem into the assessment of three spatially varying components: probabilities of adverse outcomes, vulnerabilities, and multidimensional impacts, which are aggregated through the use of multi-attribute preference functions.…”

“…Sundell et al (2019) consider three scenarios for water-drawdown measurements in their study of potential subsidence induced by the excavation of a planned power-line tunnel in Stockholm. Ferretti and Montibeller (2019) consider the sensitivity of their proposed model for multiimpact spatial risk analysis to changes in the criterion weights of an additive utility function used to aggregate different impact categories. Finally, a number of articles in this special issue address robustness by using a probabilistic approach in their predictive models and forecasts.…”

Toward the integration of uncertainty and probabilities in spatial multi-criteria risk analysis

“…lost crops, etc., which typically occur in such decision problems (e.g. Ferretti and Montibeller, 2017).…”

“…However, preliminary ideas and suggestions on how to formalize a framework for spatial risk analysis and how to spatially elicit preference information have recently been proposed (e.g. Keller andSimon, 2017, Ferretti andMontibeller, 2017).…”