An Integrated Framework for Risk‐Based Analysis of Economic Impacts of Drought and Water Scarcity in England and Wales

Jenkins, Katie; Dobson, Barnaby; Decker, Christopher

doi:10.1029/2020wr027715

Cited by 22 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…Continuous simulation approaches that operate within a probabilistic risk assessment framework are emerging but remain computationally challenging (e.g., Hillier et al, 2017). These challenges are being overcome in the context of relatively well conditioned problems (such as water resources, Jenkins et al, 2021) and hydrological flood simulations and simplified risk assessments (e.g. Flater et al, 2016;Smith et al, 2014) Such approaches do not yet offer the capability to undertake credible large scale risk assessments for systems exhibiting more complex source-pathway-receptor relationships and adaption investment choices (such as those explored in Sayers et al, 2020 using a local-dependence framework).…”

Section: Towards Continuous Simulation Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond the local climate change uplift – The importance of changes in spatial structure on future fluvial flood risk in Great Britain

Sayers,

Griffin,

Lowe

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Widespread, spatially coherent flood events can cause severe damage and disruption. Climate change has the potential to change the severity and frequency of such events. Despite this, climate change risk assessments of future fluvial flood risk typically give little to no consideration to potential changes in the spatial structure. To understand the significance of this gap, spatially coherent climate model simulations are coupled with a national hydrological model and a statistical Empirical Copula to develop a set of present and future fluvial flood events. The research finds that changes in the spatial structure of widespread fluvial flood events have the potential to materially increase projected changes in risk when compared to conventional approaches to climate change risk assessment that ignore them. Excluding changes in the spatial structure of events may mean projections of future expected annual damages maybe significantly underestimated by a factor of ~1.5. The event-based approach is also shown to provide new insights into the extreme distribution of single event damage, damage seasons, and damage years of fluvial flood risks across Great Britain. The results suggest the 1-in-100 year winter flood may increase from £1.3b to £2.1b and the 1-in-100 year single event damage may rise from £1.1b today to £1.7b by the 2080s given a 4°C rise in Global Mean Surface Temperature, assuming current adaptation policies continue and no population growth. Consequently, the findings suggest a much greater emphasis is needed on spatial ‘flood events’ if future risk is to be understood and adaptation responses appropriately framed.

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Section: Towards Continuous Simulation Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond the local climate change uplift – The importance of changes in spatial structure on future fluvial flood risk in Great Britain

Sayers,

Griffin,

Lowe

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…One approach involves stress-testing a water supply system to a wide range of climate-conditioned, hazard events and simulating the impacts in terms of one or multiple relevant risk metrics (Brown et al 2012), e.g. Customer disruption days (CDD) (Becher et al 2023) or economic costs (Borgomeo et al 2018a, Jenkins et al 2021. Iterating through the same calculation with the addition of one of multiple new adaptation options, the difference between the risk with and without any given option/portfolio of options is quantified as the option's benefit.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This can be achieved by taking inspiration from two fields of literature that have not been previously integrated with the optioneering literature. (1) Literature that explores the economic, financial and welfare impacts of household water supply disruptions (Altaf 1994, Baisa et al 2010, Freire-González et al 2017, Roibas et al 2019, Jenkins et al 2021, including through the costly replacement from private tanker trucks (Bharti et al 2020, Yoon et al 2021. Economic and welfare impacts to customers can be captured through interviews and relatively small-scale surveys (Heflin et al 2014, Selelo et al 2017, Sjöstrand et al 2021.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Such research is typically removed from the literature on climate risk to water supply systems, but rather focusses on non-climate related service intermittency (Grasham et al 2022a). National scale studies have focussed on GDP losses across a range of economic sectors caused by water supply disruptions (Jenkins et al 2021); there is limited research that estimates the costs of climate-related water supply disruptions to customers at the national scale. (2) Literature dedicated to the distributional impacts of climate extremes (Hallegatte et al 2016, Hallegatte andRozenberg 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Prioritising climate adaptation options to minimise financial and distributional impacts of water supply disruptions

Becher,

Verschuur,

Pant

et al. 2024

Environ. Res.: Infrastruct. Sustain.

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Climate-related disruptions to water supply infrastructure services incur direct financial losses to utilities (e.g. to repair damaged assets) and externalise a societal cost to domestic customers due to additional costs that they may incur (e.g. to acquire water from alternative sources). The latter often represents an uncompensated social burden, which should be properly accounted for in investment planning. Here we present a new framework for quantifying direct financial risks burdened by utilities and alternative water purchase losses incurred by domestic customers, including those in low-income groups, during flood- and drought-induced utility water supply disruptions. This framework enables the comparison of benefit-cost ratios of a portfolio of flood protection and leakage reduction for water supply systems across the island of Jamaica. A system-level optioneering analysis allows the identification of the optimal adaptation option per system. We estimate that 34% of systems would benefit from flood defences and 53% would benefit from leakage reduction to adaptation to droughts. The benefit that could be achieved by implementing all system optimised adaptation options is estimated to be 720 million Jamaican dollars per year on average, representing a substantial saving for the utility and its customers, including low-income customers. We identify options that offer strong synergies between economic and equity objectives for both types of adaptation option. The proposed framework is established to support the business case for climate adaptation in the water supply sector and to prioritise across flood and drought mitigation options. We take a first step towards mainstreaming equity considerations in water supply sector optioneering frameworks by estimating the contribution of adaptation options towards reducing household costs for low-income customers.

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“…Economic modeling has also been used to study the economic impacts of water shortages and droughts. The economic impacts of drought in urban areas such as California, Mexico, and South Korea were analyzed in case studies, and policy responses for water resource management were proposed [36][37][38]. The long-term economic impacts of water shortages in urbanizing regions were investigated, and strategies for sustainable water use were explored [39,40].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Economic Ripple Effects in the Agricultural Field Using Input–Output Analysis: Drought Damage in Korea in 2018

Song,

Park,

Kim

et al. 2024

Agronomy

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This study investigates the economic impact of the 2018 agricultural drought in Korea on the agricultural field through input–output analysis. Using industry linkage tables provided by the Bank of Korea, various economic impacts, including socio-economic and industry linkage effects, such as production, value added inducement effects, and employment inducement effects in the agricultural field, were analyzed. Our findings show the following: (1) It was found that an increase of 1 billion KRW (South Korean won) in output of agricultural, forestry, and fishery products induces an average of 0.6544 KRW in production inducement effects in other industries, 0.23756 KRW in value-added inducement effects, and 3.11363 in employment inducement effects per 1 billion KRW. (2) The supply shortage effect of agricultural, forestry, and fishery products was analyzed to cause a decrease in production of 2.3932 KRW across all industries, and the price inducing effect of a 10% increase in price was found to be 0.19400%, on average. The highest production inducement effects in the food and beverage industry (0.16514 KRW) and the highest value-added inducement effects (0.04391 KRW) came from agricultural, forestry, and fishery products. (3) In the industry linkage effect analysis, agricultural, forestry, and fishery products were found to have a forward linkage coefficient of 0.95652 and a backward linkage coefficient of 0.98911. It is implied by this result that the economic impact of agriculture on other industrial sectors is not significant. This study emphasizes the economic importance of agriculture by providing analytical results that can be utilized in agricultural policy formulation and economic decision-making. It can be used as an important basis for policy development for sustainable development and economic stability of the agricultural field. It can also contribute to a better understanding of how agriculture interacts with other industrial sectors and to the development of effective response strategies to natural disasters such as agricultural drought.

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An Integrated Framework for Risk‐Based Analysis of Economic Impacts of Drought and Water Scarcity in England and Wales

Cited by 22 publications

References 66 publications

Beyond the local climate change uplift – The importance of changes in spatial structure on future fluvial flood risk in Great Britain

Beyond the local climate change uplift – The importance of changes in spatial structure on future fluvial flood risk in Great Britain

Prioritising climate adaptation options to minimise financial and distributional impacts of water supply disruptions

Analysis of Economic Ripple Effects in the Agricultural Field Using Input–Output Analysis: Drought Damage in Korea in 2018

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