An integrated modelling framework to assess long-term impacts of water management strategies steering soil subsidence in peatlands

Hardeveld, H. A. van; Driessen, Peter; Schot, P.P.; Wassen, Martin J.

doi:10.1016/j.eiar.2017.06.007

Cited by 20 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Hoogland et al (2012) predicted future subsidence rates between <1 and 5.3mma −1 for near-surface peat layers in agricultural areas of the central Netherlands for a period of 15 years, with water levels maintained at fixed elevations relative to the subsiding surface. Similar results were obtained by Van Hardeveld et al (2017) for subsidence of near-surface peat layers in agricultural areas of the central and western part of the Netherlands. They predicted subsidence rates between 0.6 and 4.5mma −1 for the entire 21st century, with water levels maintained between 30 and 90cm below the surface.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…Since primary compression takes place in the first few years after groundwater level lowering, the subsidence rates decrease with time. Although our predicted future subsidence rates are twice as high as those of Hoogland et al (2012) and Van Hardeveld et al (2017), they are in good correspondence with documented recent and present-day subsidence rates.…”

Section: Subsidence Ratessupporting

confidence: 83%

“…The thickness reduction of the peat voxels by oxidation was only calculated for those parts of the voxels that were situated above the lowered phreatic groundwater level. A generally tested and applied function was used to quantify peat thickness reduction due to oxidation ε ox over time (eqn 12) ( Van der Meulen et al, 2007;Van Hardeveld et al, 2017). The rate of oxidation (V ox ) is a value relative to the thickness of the layer above the groundwater level, and was set at 0.015 m m −1 a −1 , which is a typical value for Holocene peat in the Netherlands (cf.…”

Section: Peat Oxidationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Due to differences in the geological build-up of the Holocene sequence, past peat mining activities, and drainage history, the volume of the remaining peat is not equally distributed throughout the subsurface. As a result, local to regional variations exist in the subsidence potential of the coastal-deltaic plain during future phreatic groundwater level lowering (Nieuwenhuis & Schokking, 1997; Van der Meulen et al, 2007; Van Hardeveld et al, 2017; Koster et al, 2018a). Identification of areas most vulnerable to subsidence is essential for scientists, stakeholders and policymakers to design strategies to mitigate and adapt to subsidence, and eventually to sustain the viability of the coastal-deltaic plain of the Netherlands.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Differential subsidence in the urbanised coastal-deltaic plain of the Netherlands

Koster

Stafleu

Stouthamer

2018

Netherlands Journal of Geosciences

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The urbanised peat-rich coastal-deltaic plain of the Netherlands is severely subsiding due to human-induced phreatic groundwater level lowering, as this causes peat layers to compress and oxidise. To determine the potential susceptibility of this area to future subsidence by peat compression and oxidation, the effects of lowering present-day phreatic groundwater levels were quantitatively evaluated using a subsidence model. Input were a 3D geological subsurface voxel-model, modelled phreatic groundwater levels, and functions for peat compression and oxidation. Phreatic groundwater levels were lowered by 0.25 and 0.5 m, and the resulting peat compression and oxidation over periods of 15 and 30 years were determined. The model area comprised the major cities Amsterdam and Rotterdam, and their surrounding agricultural lands.The results revealed that for these scenarios agricultural areas may subside between 0.3 and 0.8 m; potential subsidence in Amsterdam and Rotterdam is considerably lower, less than 0.4 m. This is due to the presence of several metres thick anthropogenic brought-up soils overlying the peat below the urban areas, which has already compressed the peat to a depth below groundwater level, and thus minimises further compression and oxidation. In agricultural areas peat is often situated near the surface, and is therefore highly compressible and prone to oxidation. The averaged subsidence rates for the scenarios range between 7 and 13 mm a −1 , which is corresponds to present-day rates of subsidence in the peat areas of the Netherlands. These results contrast with the trend of coastal-deltaic subsidence in other deltas, with cities subsiding faster than agricultural areas. This difference is explained by the driver of subsidence: in other deltas, subsidence of urban areas is mainly due to deep aquifer extraction, whereas in the Netherlands subsidence is due to phreatic groundwater level lowering.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Subsidence Ratessupporting

confidence: 83%

Section: Peat Oxidationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Differential subsidence in the urbanised coastal-deltaic plain of the Netherlands

Koster

Stafleu

Stouthamer

2018

Netherlands Journal of Geosciences

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“…Studies conducted in the Netherlands that focused on peat oxidation generally use a fixed annual oxidation rate with respect to the actual thickness of a layer (Koster, Stafleu, & Stouthamer, 2018;Van der Meulen et al, 2007;Van Hardeveld et al, 2017). Because only the organic matter oxidizes, a residual thickness representing admixed clastic sediments should ideally be taken into account.…”

Section: Oxidation Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disentangling and Parameterizing Shallow Sources of Subsidence: Application to a Reclaimed Coastal Area, Flevoland, the Netherlands

Fokker

Gunnink²,

Koster³

et al. 2019

JGR Earth Surface

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The natural surface area of many coastal and delta plains has been increased by land reclamation in response to growing populations. These reclaimed lands are often experiencing subsidence. The reclaimed South Flevopolder in the coastal plain of the Netherlands has experienced severe subsidence after its reclamation in 1968. The subsidence is caused by phreatic groundwater level lowering and the associated aeration of the former subaqueous shallow subsurface and increased effective stresses. In this study, surface elevation measurements that quantify the subsidence, conducted annually between 1968 and 1993, and in 2009 and 2012, have been used to constrain and estimate the parameters in models that describe subsidence. For the estimation an Ensemble Smoother with Multiple Data Assimilation was employed. For the forward models, we employed correlations for compression (primary consolidation and creep), oxidation, and shrinkage of coastal deposits. Shrinkage of the aerated clay and organic clay layers was found to be the main contributor to subsidence, and the measurements could be represented well. The quantification of the model parameters allows for better subsidence forecasts. The stochastic method that was employed further facilitates to define a quality measure for forecasts in terms of a covariance matrix or a confidence range.

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Mathematical Modelling and Simulation of Chemical and Biological Reaction in Peat Solidification Work for Environmental Sustainability

Rahman

Mohamed²,

Durahim³

et al. 2022

Earth Systems Protection and Sustainability

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An integrated modelling framework to assess long-term impacts of water management strategies steering soil subsidence in peatlands

Cited by 20 publications

References 30 publications

Differential subsidence in the urbanised coastal-deltaic plain of the Netherlands

Differential subsidence in the urbanised coastal-deltaic plain of the Netherlands

Disentangling and Parameterizing Shallow Sources of Subsidence: Application to a Reclaimed Coastal Area, Flevoland, the Netherlands

Mathematical Modelling and Simulation of Chemical and Biological Reaction in Peat Solidification Work for Environmental Sustainability

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