An Integrated Risk Function for Estimating the Global Burden of Disease Attributable to Ambient Fine Particulate Matter Exposure

Burnett, Richard T.; Pope, C. Arden; Ezzati, Majid; Olives, Casey; Lim, Stephen S; Mehta, Sumi; Shin, Hwashin Hyun; Singh, Gitanjali; Hubbell, Bryan; Bräuer, Michael; Anderson, Hugh; Smith, Kirk R.; Balmes, John R.; Bruce, Nigel; Kan, Haidong; Laden, Francine; Prüss‐Üstün, Annette; Turner, Michelle C.; Gapstur, Susan M.; Diver, W. Ryan; Cohen, Aarón

doi:10.1289/ehp.1307049

Cited by 1,604 publications

(1,437 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…The relative risk (RR) of four causes of death, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, ischemic heart disease, lung cancer, and stroke, when compared with annual incident rate has been assessed separately. Such risks are described by a log-linear relationship with the corresponding PM 2.5 concentration level (Burnett et al, 2014). The basic form of RR formulas is provided as follows:…”

Section: Health Impact Assessment (Hia)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of air pollutants from fire and non-fire emissions on the regional air quality in Southeast Asia

Lee

Iraqui

et al. 2018

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Abstract. Severe haze events in Southeast Asia caused by particulate pollution have become more intense and frequent in recent years. Widespread biomass burning occurrences and particulate pollutants from human activities other than biomass burning play important roles in degrading air quality in Southeast Asia. In this study, numerical simulations have been conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a chemistry component (WRF-Chem) to quantitatively examine the contributions of aerosols emitted from fire (i.e., biomass burning) versus nonfire (including fossil fuel combustion, and road dust, etc.) sources to the degradation of air quality and visibility over Southeast Asia. These simulations cover a time period from 2002 to 2008 and are driven by emissions from (a) fossil fuel burning only, (b) biomass burning only, and (c) both fossil fuel and biomass burning. The model results reveal that 39 % of observed low-visibility days (LVDs) can be explained by either fossil fuel burning or biomass burning emissions alone, a further 20 % by fossil fuel burning alone, a further 8 % by biomass burning alone, and a further 5 % by a combination of fossil fuel burning and biomass burning. Analysis of an 24 h PM 2.5 air quality index (AQI) indicates that the case with coexisting fire and non-fire PM 2.5 can substantially increase the chance of AQI being in the moderate or unhealthy pollution level from 23 to 34 %. The premature mortality in major Southeast Asian cities due to degradation of air quality by particulate pollutants is estimated to increase from ∼ 4110 per year in 2002 to ∼ 6540 per year in 2008. In addition, we demonstrate the importance of certain missing non-fire anthropogenic aerosol sources including anthropogenic fugitive and industrial dusts in causing urban air quality degradation. An experiment of using machine learning algorithms to forecast the occurrence of haze events in Singapore is also explored in this study. All of these results suggest that besides minimizing biomass burning activities, an effective air pollution mitigation policy for Southeast Asia needs to consider controlling emissions from non-fire anthropogenic sources.

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Section: Health Impact Assessment (Hia)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of air pollutants from fire and non-fire emissions on the regional air quality in Southeast Asia

Lee

Iraqui

et al. 2018

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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“…We also examine the impact of using a low-concentration threshold. We apply a threshold of 5.8 µg m −3 (suggested by Burnett et al, 2014 which is derived from Lim et al, 2012) to annual mean PM 2.5 concentrations. Differences in AF estimates associated with long-term exposure to populationweighted PM 2.5 concentrations range from −4.8 to +2.1 % (as compared to −4.7 to +2.8 % above when no threshold is applied).…”

Section: Attributable Fraction Associated With Long-termmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of model spatial resolution on simulated ozone and fine particulate matter for Europe: implications for health impact assessments

et al. 2018

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Abstract. We examine the impact of model horizontal resolution on simulated concentrations of surface ozone (O 3 ) and particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM 2.5 ), and the associated health impacts over Europe, using the HadGEM3-UKCA chemistry-climate model to simulate pollutant concentrations at a coarse (∼ 140 km) and a finer (∼ 50 km) resolution. The attributable fraction (AF) of total mortality due to long-term exposure to warm season daily maximum 8 h running mean (MDA8) O 3 and annual-average PM 2.5 concentrations is then calculated for each European country using pollutant concentrations simulated at each resolution. Our results highlight a seasonal variation in simulated O 3 and PM 2.5 differences between the two model resolutions in Europe. Compared to the finer resolution results, simulated European O 3 concentrations at the coarse resolution are higher on average in winter and spring (∼ 10 and ∼ 6 %, respectively). In contrast, simulated O 3 concentrations at the coarse resolution are lower in summer and autumn (∼ −1 and ∼ −4 %, respectively). These differences may be partly explained by differences in nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) concentrations simulated at the two resolutions. Compared to O 3 , we find the opposite seasonality in simulated PM 2.5 differences between the two resolutions. In winter and spring, simulated PM 2.5 concentrations are lower at the coarse compared to the finer resolution (∼ −8 and ∼ −6 %, respectively) but higher in summer and autumn (∼ 29 and ∼ 8 %, respectively). Simulated PM 2.5 values are also mostly related to differences in convective rainfall between the two resolutions for all seasons. These differences between the two resolutions exhibit clear spatial patterns for both pollutants that vary by season, and exert a strong influence on country to country variations in estimated AF for the two resolutions. Warm season MDA8 O 3 levels are higher in most of southern Europe, but lower in areas of northern and eastern Europe when simulated at the coarse resolution compared to the finer resolution. Annual-average PM 2.5 concentrations are higher across most of northern and eastern Europe but lower over parts of southwest Europe at the coarse compared to the finer resolution. Across Europe, differences in the AF associated with long-term exposure to population-weighted MDA8 O 3 range between −0.9 and +2.6 % (largest positive differences in southern Europe), while differences in the AF associated with long-term exposure to populationweighted annual mean PM 2.5 range from −4.7 to +2.8 % (largest positive differences in eastern Europe) of the total mortality. Therefore this study, with its unique focus on Europe, demonstrates that health impact assessments calculated using modelled pollutant concentrations, are sensitive to a change in model resolution by up to ∼ ±5 % of the total mortality across Europe.

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“…We evaluated the associations of SBP and DBP with exposure to PM 2.5 mass, BC, and WSOM. We express the results as the changes in SBP or DBP associated with a 1-ln(μg/m 3 ) increase in pollutant exposure using one and two-pollutant multivariate mixed-effects models because there was evidence of a nonlinear association (21,22).…”

Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 99%

Highway proximity and black carbon from cookstoves as a risk factor for higher blood pressure in rural China

Baumgartner

Zhang

Schauer

et al. 2014

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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178

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Air pollution in China and other parts of Asia poses large health risks and is an important contributor to global climate change. Almost half of Chinese homes use biomass and coal fuels for cooking and heating. China's economic growth and infrastructure development has led to increased emissions from coal-fired power plants and an expanding fleet of motor vehicles. Black carbon (BC) from incomplete biomass and fossil fuel combustion is the most strongly light-absorbing component of particulate matter (PM) air pollution and the second most important climate-forcing human emission. PM composition and sources may also be related to its human health impact. We enrolled 280 women living in a rural area of northwestern Yunnan where biomass fuels are commonly used. We measured their blood pressure, distance from major traffic routes, and daily exposure to BC (pyrolytic biomass combustion), water-soluble organic aerosol (organic aerosol from biomass combustion), and, in a subset, hopane markers (motor vehicle emissions) in winter and summer. BC had the strongest association with systolic blood pressure (SBP) (4.3 mmHg; P < 0.001), followed by PM mass and water-soluble organic mass. The effect of BC on SBP was almost three times greater in women living near the highway [6.2 mmHg; 95% confidence interval (CI), 3.6 to 8.9 vs. 2.6 mmHg; 95% CI, 0.1 to 5.2]. Our findings suggest that BC from combustion emissions is more strongly associated with blood pressure than PM mass, and that BC's health effects may be larger among women living near a highway and with greater exposure to motor vehicle emissions. cardiovascular disease | household air pollution | solid fuels P articulate matter (PM) air pollution is a leading health risk factor (1) and primary contributor to anthropogenic climate change (2). Air pollution is notoriously high in China and other parts of Asia. China's rising energy demands have led to increased air pollution emissions from coal-fired power plants (3). Its motorized transport growth is the fastest in the world with the number of motor vehicles projected to quadruple in the next two decades, reaching over 380 million by 2030 (4). Meanwhile, nearly half of all Chinese still cook and heat their homes with highly polluting biomass and coal fuels (5). The resulting PM concentrations routinely exceed the World Health Organization's (WHO) annual Air Quality Guideline of 10 μg/m 3 by a factor of 10 or more (6) and are associated with a number of adverse health outcomes, including cardiovascular diseases (1, 7).PM differs in chemical properties, size, and possibly effects on human health. Black carbon (BC) and organic carbon PM are emitted during incomplete biomass and fossil fuel combustion and seem to have important effects on both climate and human health. BC affects the regional and global climate by absorbing solar radiation and heating the atmosphere and is the second most important climate-forcing human emission, after carbon dioxide (8). Coemitted organic carbon may further influence radiative forcing by ac...

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An Integrated Risk Function for Estimating the Global Burden of Disease Attributable to Ambient Fine Particulate Matter Exposure

Cited by 1,604 publications

References 24 publications

Impacts of air pollutants from fire and non-fire emissions on the regional air quality in Southeast Asia

Impacts of air pollutants from fire and non-fire emissions on the regional air quality in Southeast Asia

The influence of model spatial resolution on simulated ozone and fine particulate matter for Europe: implications for health impact assessments

Highway proximity and black carbon from cookstoves as a risk factor for higher blood pressure in rural China

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