An integrated risk index accounting for epistemic uncertainty in probability risk assessment

Abstract

In this paper, we present an integrated framework for quantifying epistemic uncertainty in probabilistic risk assessment. Three types of epistemic uncertainty, that is, completeness, structural and parametric uncertainties, are considered. A maturity model is developed to evaluate the management of these epistemic uncertainties in the model building process. The impact of epistemic uncertainty on the result of the risk assessment is, then, estimated based on the developed maturity model. Then, an integrated risk index is defined to reflect the epistemic uncertainty in the risk assessment results. An indifference method is developed to evaluate the index based on the maturity of epistemic uncertainty management. A case study concerning a nuclear power plant is shown to demonstrate the applicability of the overall modelling framework.

Reflection on methodology of the correlation between electromagnetic interference and safety in high-speed railways

“…Zhang, Bai, Shi, Zhang, and Luo (2021) focused on the risk of lithium battery thermal runaway events, proposing and calculating relevant risk indices for safety assessment. Zeng, Bani-Mustafa, Flage, and Zio (2020) introduced a comprehensive framework for quantifying cognitive uncertainties in probabilistic risk assessment and validated it. However, existing studies typically rely on expert experience to assign risk levels, showing evident subjectivity and making it difficult to accurately and quantitatively derive objective weight vectors.…”