An integrated system for forecasting Arno River flash floods

Carrara, A.; Frontero, P; Maio, Dario; Rizzi, Stefano

doi:10.1007/bf00127005

Nat Hazards

1992

DOI: 10.1007/bf00127005

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An integrated system for forecasting Arno River flash floods

A. Carrara

P Frontero

Dario Maio

et al.

Abstract: A system for effectively forecasting flash floods of the Arno River (Tuscany, Italy) should provide a flood warning with 10-12 h of lead time, primarily in order to evacuate the city of Florence. This goal may be achieved by acquiring and processing meteorological and hydrological data in realtime and, accordingly, by releasing alarms at different levels of reliability and concern. Through the application of both procedural language and expert system techniques, a prototype was developed which can readily hand… Show more

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Cited by 2 publications

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“…Firstly, in several papers on models of human response to flood warnings, evacuation has been postulated as one of the potential responses among several other measures, such as flood-proofing and emergency relocation of household possessions (Ferrell and Krzysztofowicz 1983;Handmer and Ord 1986). Carrara et a/. (1992) presented a real-time management model, incorporating meteorological data, for forecasting flash floods, with 10-12 h of lead time, primarily to facilitate evacuation of the City of Florence, Italy.…”

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confidence: 99%

Post‐flood assessment of emergency evacuation policies in the Red River basin, Southern Manitoba

Rasid¹,

Haider²,

Hunt³

2000

Canadian Geographies / Géographies canadiennes

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A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was used as a part of a post‐flood survey among the residents of four small urban communities on the Red River ‐ Emerson, Morris, Ste. Agathe, and St. Adolphe ‐ to assess their preferences for emergency evacuation policies. The respondents were asked to choose repeatedly among three hypothetical evacuation policies described in terms of (a) the type of evacuation (mandatory, voluntary, no evacuation), (b) notification time for evacuation (1, 2, 4 days), (c) post‐evacuation flood relief (75%, 80% current, 90%), and (d) an overall evaluation of the risk of hazardous flooding, i.e. chances of over‐dike flooding or breaching through dikes (99%, 75%, and 50%). The survey results indicated that, despite significant differences between Ste. Agathe and other communities in the magnitude of impact of the 1997 flood, overall, a voluntary evacuation seemed to be preferred at the 50 percent risk of hazardous flooding; whereas the preference for a mandatory evacuation was related to a 99 percent risk. A notification time of 2 days for evacuation was preferred over that of 1 day but the preference for 2 days was not statistically different from that of 4 days. In both types of evacuation a 10 percent increase in the amount of flood relief was preferred over the current amount of 80 percent and the marginal utility of a 5 percent decrease was nearly equivalent to the suggested 10 percent increase. Because of such ability of the DCE to assess tradeoffs of alternative choices/policies, the paper suggests further applications of the model for eliciting floodplain residents' preferences for various flood management issues. Dans le cadre d'une enquête effectuée auprès des résidents de quatre petites communautés urbaines ‐ Emerson, Morris, Ste‐Agathe et St‐Adolphe ‐ à la suite des inondations de la rivière Rouge, les préférences du public quant à la politique à suivre en cas d'évacuation ont étéétudiées. L'évaluation a été menée à partir d'un modèle à choix discret. Les personnes interrogées devaient choisir entre trois hypothèses d'évacuation, hypothèses établies sur les bases suivantes: a) le type d'évacuation (obligatoire; volontaire; non‐évacuation); b) le délai accordé avant l'évacuation (1, 2 ou 4 jours); c) les secours procurés à la suite de l'évacuation (75%, les 80% actuels, 90%); et, d) une évaluation d'ensemble des dangers d'inondation, par exemple, les possibilités qu'une digue soit submergée, ou que les digues rompent par endroits (99%, 75% et 50%). Les résultats de l'enquête montrent que, dans l'ensemble, malgré une différence significative dans l'importance de l'impact de l'inondation de 1997 à Sainte‐Agathe et dans les autres communautés, le choix d'une évacuation volontaire était préféré quand ne se présentait qu'une possibilité d'inondation de 50 pour cent; la préférence pour une évacuation obligatoire n'étant indiquée que dans le cas de 99 pour cent de risques d'inondation. Un avertissement avant évacuation de 2 plutôt qu'l jour était préféré par les personnes interrogées, mais, s...

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Post‐flood assessment of emergency evacuation policies in the Red River basin, Southern Manitoba

Rasid¹,

Haider²,

Hunt³

2000

Canadian Geographies / Géographies canadiennes

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Erosion, flooding and channel management in Mediterranean environments of southern Europe

Poesen

Hooke

1997

Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment

333

187

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Soil erosion by water is one of the most important land degradation processes in Mediterranean environments. This process is strongly linked to problems of flooding and channel management. This article reviews existing knowledge on these topics and defines research gaps. In the framework of environmental change studies it is important to consider soil erosion at various spatial and temporal scales. Most field measurements and modelling efforts have hitherto concentrated on water erosion processes operating at the runoff plot scale. Soil erosion processes operating at other spatial scales have received much less attention in the literature. Yet, there are indications that gully and channel erosion are probably the dominant sediment sources in a variety of Mediterranean environments. Beside water erosion, other erosion processes operating within catchments, such as tillage erosion, land reshaping for land preparation (e.g., terracing) or soil quarrying can have significant impacts on soil profile truncation. Land use changes strongly affect the intensity of these processes. The conditions, position and connectivity of the runoff and sediment generating areas within catchments have a profound effect on flood characteristics within the main channels but the dynamics are not well understood. Some research has taken place into meteorological conditions producing catastrophic flooding and into development of hydrological models using catchment variables. Much less is known of the properties and effects of flood waves within channels, partly because of lack of records of these infrequent events. It is not only water but also sediment which causes destruction in floods, yet sediment is frequently ignored in channel management. The extreme conditions associated with floods in the region, the variability of flows and of flood zones, the mobility of the channels and the high sediment loads create particular challenges for channel management. Trends in land use and channel management are tending to exacerbate these problems. From this review it can be concluded that there is still an important need for process-based understanding and modelling of key soil erosion processes operating at a range of scales: i.e., from plots over hillslopes, catchments to regions. In particular, more research is needed on the linkages between upland areas which produce large volumes of runoff and sediment and channels on the other hand. Such linkages are through gullies and sedimentation zones. Monitoring and experi mental data on key soil erosion and channel processes operating within Mediterranean landscapes are crucial for the improvement of soil erosion and channel models for a range of scales. In particular, long-term monitoring of soil erosion processes and stream channel changes seems to be essential to observe the effects of infrequent torrential rain events on severe erosion, flooding and stream channel changes as well as on the transient response of Mediterranean landscapes to changes in land use and climate. Systematic collation of historical evidence of changes would be valuable. Implications of land and water use need to be examined in detail. A wide range of alternative strategies and techniques of channel and basin management must be explored and modelled. A holistic approach to management of the fluvial system is recommended.

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An integrated system for forecasting Arno River flash floods

Cited by 2 publications

References 4 publications

Post‐flood assessment of emergency evacuation policies in the Red River basin, Southern Manitoba

Post‐flood assessment of emergency evacuation policies in the Red River basin, Southern Manitoba

Erosion, flooding and channel management in Mediterranean environments of southern Europe

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