An interdisciplinary agent-based evacuation model: integrating the natural environment, built environment, and social system for community preparedness and resilience

Abstract

Abstract. Previous tsunami evacuation simulations have mostly been based on arbitrary assumptions or inputs adapted from non-emergency situations, but a few studies have used empirical behavior data. This study bridges this gap by integrating empirical decision data from surveys on local evacuation expectations and evacuation drills into an agent-based model of evacuation behavior for two Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) communities that would be inundated within 20–40 min after a CSZ earthquake. The model also considers the impacts of liquefaction and landslides from the earthquake on tsunami evacuation. Furthermore, we integrate the slope-speed component from least-cost distance to build the simulation model that better represents the complex nature of evacuations. The simulation results indicate that milling time and the evacuation participation rate have significant nonlinear impacts on tsunami mortality estimates. When people walk faster than 1 m s−1, evacuation by foot is more effective because it avoids traffic congestion when driving. We also find that evacuation results are more sensitive to walking speed, milling time, evacuation participation, and choosing the closest safe location than to other behavioral variables. Minimum tsunami mortality results from maximizing the evacuation participation rate, minimizing milling time, and choosing the closest safe destination outside of the inundation zone. This study's comparison of the agent-based model and the beat-the-wave (BtW) model finds consistency between the two models' results. By integrating the natural system, built environment, and social system, this interdisciplinary model incorporates substantial aspects of the real world into the multi-hazard agent-based platform. This model provides a unique opportunity for local authorities to prioritize their resources for hazard education, community disaster preparedness, and resilience plans.

Urban structure reinforces attitudes towards tsunami evacuation

“…With the agent-based evacuation model, we found that urban structures reinforce attitudes towards tsunami evacuation and largely affect the success of evacuation. Unlike the conventional tsunami evacuation models 38 – 42 that have simplified decision-making processes including communications among evacuees, the model employed in this study can simulate comprehensive evacuation processes from decision-making with communications to detailed physical evacuation movements. This feature enables us to investigate the evacuation behaviours from attitudes towards evacuation.…”

Chinese organic rice transition spatial econometrics empirical analysis

“…Social ecology theory is a theory that understands and explains human social behaviour and social systems from an ecological perspective [ 67 ]. It emphasizes the interrelationships and interactions between social systems and the natural environment, viewing society and the environment as an interdependent ecosystem [ 68 , 69 ]. The core ideas of the theory include the following.…”

Effectiveness of a Dam-Breach Flood Alert in Mitigating Life Losses: A Spatiotemporal Sectorisation Analysis in a High-Density Urban Area in Brazil

“…Water 2023, 15, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 20 stakeholders involved in hazard identification and warning issuance [46], the mechanisms of warning dissemination and their influence [47,48], as well as the preparedness and prior knowledge of the population regarding mobilisation and evacuation to safe places [49,50]. The spatial and temporal sectorisation of alerts and evacuations adapting the system to the specific characteristics of each sector can bring significant benefits in terms of system efficiency [51][52][53].…”

“…During the development process, the developed team encountered challenges in identifying and characterising an intermediate flood zone. To address this, they conducted a comprehensive review and expansion of the existing database compiled from the studies conducted by McClelland and Bowles [49] and Aboelata et al [50]. Nevertheless, specific issues identified in the 2.0 version were reported to the Risk Management Center of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.…”

“…A significant advantage of applying these models, which has been little explored in the literature, is the ability to measure, in advance, the efficiency of alert and evacuation systems with different characteristics, such as the decision-making process of stakeholders involved in hazard identification and warning issuance [46], the mechanisms of warning dissemination and their influence [47,48], as well as the preparedness and prior knowledge of the population regarding mobilisation and evacuation to safe places [49,50]. The spatial and temporal sectorisation of alerts and evacuations adapting the system to the specific characteristics of each sector can bring significant benefits in terms of system efficiency [51][52][53].…”