An interdisciplinary study to explore impacts from policies for the introduction of low carbon vehicles

Abstract

Engineering, +44 (0113) An Interdisciplinary Study to Explore Impacts from Policies for the Introduction of Low Carbon VehiclesDriven by concerns of climate change, governments across the world are introducing a number of policies to accelerate the uptake of low carbon vehicles, with a specific focus on electric motors. However, there is uncertainty in the effectiveness of such policies and technology pathways, which are inherently interlinked. This paper considers the short-term situation to 2020 and focuses on the concern that these policies may bring about some disproportionate impacts in society due to changes in mobility. An ethical framework is established that seeks to balance obligations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and rights to car ownership, then selected policies are modelled within this framework to assess acceptability of implementation. Although these policies are successful in introducing low carbon vehicles and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, findings also indicate uneven cost burdens and reduced affordability of car ownership.Following this, recommendations for policy amendments and model improvements are made.Keywords: low carbon; electric vehicles; transport policy; ethics; system dynamic modelling IntroductionThis research addresses concerns that transport greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction policies and the opportunity for car ownership may be in conflict. For over a century, car use has continued to grow in developed countries, to a point where car ownership is no longer viewed as a luxury by many, but as a necessary part of maintaining their current lifestyle. Car ownership is a means to mobility that gives many advantages over other modes, including flexibility, time-savings and independence. Moreover, with many political decisions regarding transport networks and infrastructure since the mid-20th century being biased towards car ownership, some journeys are almost impossible without a car.However, over the last few decades there has been growing recognition and concern over the potential impacts of climate change caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and one of the major sources is the transport sector, which accounts for approximately 15% of global GHG emissions (ITF 2010). As such, governments are introducing policies to facilitate a transition to low carbon vehicles (LCVs), which is further driven by other policies on local pollution and resource security. Although the automobile industry has been very much a free market up until now, these policies are being implemented to stimulate the market for LCVs , which consist of small ultraefficient conventional (fossil-fuel powered) Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle (ICEV) in addition to alternative fuels and powertrains. The policies are particularly important as LCV uptake is currently stifled by comparatively high purchase prices and/or perceived inferior attributes to current technologies.The concern which has driven this work is that although these technologies are necessary they, and the policies to p...

Consumer structure in the emerging market for electric vehicles: Identifying market segments using cluster analysis

“…Whilst the effectiveness of fiscal policies to incentivise the adoption of low emission vehicles has been investigated at the market level (Ewing and Sarigöllü, 1998;Diamond, 2009;Ryan et al 2009;Harrison and Shepherd, 2013;Sierzchula et al 2014), Borthwick and Carreno (2012) demonstrate that market segments are likely to have different responses to incentives. Their findings indicate that a segment of hesitant adopters, referred to as Go-With-The-Flow-Greens, are susceptible to changes in situational factors and could potentially be encouraged towards pure battery EV adoption through fiscal incentives.…”

An ethical assessment of low carbon vehicles using cost benefit analysis

“…The latter option is already being explored in France, which means that analyses similar to the one presented in this paper are contemporary and of high policy relevance. The system dynamics model described by Harrison and Shepherd (2014) has been used to simulate the overall costs and benefits of different policies. Due to the aim of this paper and the findings of Crist (2012), we have focused on three alternative policy options, namely one which included only subsidies for LCVs, one which included only regulation for LCVs and one which included a combination of these two policies.…”

Policy making under uncertainty in electric vehicle demand

“…Moreover, doubts regarding the impact of purchase incentives have been raised in academic research, with findings suggesting that the price of petrol is significantly more important in reference to the adoption of hybrid vehicles compared to purchase incentives for US consumers (Diamond, 2009). Furthermore, in forecasting market developments, subsidies produce no significant addition to market uptake over what is produced by vehicle regulation (Harrison and Shepherd, 2013), whereas the metric of assessing which vehicles qualify for an incentive does not significantly influence adoption rates (de Haan et al, 2007).…”