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AbstractThis paper quantifies the life-cycle incidence of key family policy measures in Germany. The analysis is based on a novel dynamic microsimulation model that combines simulated family life-cycles for a base population from the 2009 wave of the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) with a comprehensive tax-benefit model. The results indicate that households in Germany benefit considerably from family-and marriage-related transfers, yet also reveal substantial variation behind the population average. Moreover, it is shown that some measures, such as income tax splitting, may make individuals in fact worse off, in financial terms, over the long course, as a result of negative labour supply incentives which are reinforced through detrimental effects on human capital accumulation.
IntroductionStudies of earnings inequality increasingly compare outcomes not in a cross-section, but over the life-cycle (e.g., Bowlus and Robin 2012). Adopting such a life-cycle perspective is also important for assessing the effects of tax-benefit systems (e.g., Nelissen 1998). However, the analysis is made difficult by the fact that available data sets rarely span the entire lifecycle of individuals or households. Researchers have dealt with this challenge in two ways:one possibility is to adopt a "slicing" approach which stiches agents observed at different ages together, with the extreme case of converting a single cross-section into a synthetic cohort, as in the computation of total fertility rates. The second possibility is to rely on simulation meth- In the following, we will present the different components of the model in greater detail.We will also show results from a baseline simulation that constitutes the point of departure for the policy analysis in the next section.
Base populationOur base population is drawn from the SOEP wave of 2009. The SOEP is a longitudinal survey of private households, with a rich set of information on personal and household characteristics. 1 We keep only those agents for whom all information required for simulating taxes and transfers (cf. Section 3) is available.ZEWDMM is able to simulate trajectories for the entire cross-section. However, for the present purpose, we focus on households in which at least one individual is between 25 and 29 years old in 2009. The members of this group are (1) old enough so that most individuals have completed their education and at the same time (2) young enough so that we can follow them over the major part ...