An introduction to the ROSETTA modeling process for advanced space transportation technology investment

Abstract

In order to enable future space transportation systems, which in turn will enable new missions and markets in space, technology development is needed. But with limited financial resources, government and industry strategic decision makers need an inexpensive, timely, robust methodology for prioritization of advanced space transportation technological investment. The methodology described herein couples robust design simulation methods in a spreadsheet-based meta-model with technology ranking approaches to assess programmatic (i.e. cost and business case), safety, and performance uncertainties associated with future transportation systems. The simplicity of this technique offers the capability to perform Monte Carlo simulations to generate probability distributions rather than simple deterministic values for each output metric, which allows consideration of design risk. This methodology is described in detail through its application on a Two Stage to Orbit (TSTO) Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) based upon the Bimese concept (developed at NASA's Langley Research Center) using NASA's 2nd Generation space transportation technology assumptions.

I-RaCM: A Fully Integrated Risk and Life Cycle Cost Model

“…1,2,3,4 In addition, SpaceWorks Engineering has applied multi-disciplinary design approaches to rapidly assess technology investment to various aerospace systems. 5,6,7,8 Cost, reliability, and other "ilities" have been included in these multi-disciplinary frameworks to a limited extent, providing a foundation in thinking for a fully integrated toolset. I-RaCM offers a more complete set of "ility" analysis tools, many with higher fidelity and greater flexibility than previously integrated together.…”