An inverse modeling approach for tree-ring-based climate reconstructions under changing atmospheric CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; concentrations

Boucher, Étienne; Guiot, Joël; Hatté, Christine; Daux, Valérie; Danis, P.A.; Dussouillez, Philippe

doi:10.5194/bg-11-3245-2014

Cited by 32 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…This may help to explain why correlations between ring widths and climate at individual sites appear to have broken down in recent decades (the so-called "divergence problem"; D' Arrigo et al, 2008). The availability of a robust model to investigate tree growth could help to provide better reconstructions of past climate changes (see Boucher et al, 2014, for example), as well as more plausible projections of the response of tree growth to continuing climate change in the future.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Simulation of tree-ring widths with a model for primary production, carbon allocation, and growth

Harrison

Prentice

et al. 2014

Biogeosciences

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Abstract. We present a simple, generic model of annual tree growth, called "T ". This model accepts input from a first-principles light-use efficiency model (the "P " model). The P model provides values for gross primary production (GPP) per unit of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). Absorbed PAR is estimated from the current leaf area. GPP is allocated to foliage, transport tissue, and fineroot production and respiration in such a way as to satisfy well-understood dimensional and functional relationships. Our approach thereby integrates two modelling approaches separately developed in the global carbon-cycle and forestscience literature. The T model can represent both ontogenetic effects (the impact of ageing) and the effects of environmental variations and trends (climate and CO 2 ) on growth. Driven by local climate records, the model was applied to simulate ring widths during the period 1958-2006 for multiple trees of Pinus koraiensis from the Changbai Mountains in northeastern China. Each tree was initialised at its actual diameter at the time when local climate records started. The model produces realistic simulations of the interannual variability in ring width for different age cohorts (young, mature, and old). Both the simulations and observations show a significant positive response of tree-ring width to growingseason total photosynthetically active radiation (PAR 0 ) and the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration (α), and a significant negative response to mean annual temperature (MAT). The slopes of the simulated and observed relationships with PAR 0 and α are similar; the negative response to MAT is underestimated by the model. Comparison of simulations with fixed and changing atmospheric CO 2 concentration shows that CO 2 fertilisation over the past 50 years is too small to be distinguished in the ring-width data, given ontogenetic trends and interannual variability in climate.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Simulation of tree-ring widths with a model for primary production 3.4 Simulated CO 2 effect on tree growth Elevated levels of CO 2 are expected to have a positive impact on tree growth (Hyvönen et al, 2007;Donohue et al, 2013;Hickler et al, 2008;Boucher et al, 2014 (Fig. 6).…”

Section: G LI Et Almentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of tree-ring widths with a model for primary production, carbon allocation, and growth

Harrison

Prentice

et al. 2014

Biogeosciences

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“…and Quercus spp. (Gaucherel et al, 2008a, b;Danis et al, 2012;Misson, 2004;Misson et al, 2004;Boucher et al, 2014;Gea-Izquierdo et al, 2015, 2017. Thus far, the model has never been used to simulate forest growth under boreal conditions.…”

Section: The Maiden Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecophysiological modeling of photosynthesis and carbon allocation to the tree stem in the boreal forest

Gennaretti

Gea‐Izquierdo²,

Boucher³

et al. 2017

Biogeosciences

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Abstract. A better understanding of the coupling between photosynthesis and carbon allocation in the boreal forest, together with its associated environmental factors and mechanistic rules, is crucial to accurately predict boreal forest carbon stocks and fluxes, which are significant components of the global carbon budget. Here, we adapted the MAIDEN ecophysiological forest model to consider important processes for boreal tree species, such as nonlinear acclimation of photosynthesis to temperature changes, canopy development as a function of previous-year climate variables influencing bud formation and the temperature dependence of carbon partition in summer. We tested these modifications in the eastern Canadian taiga using black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) gross primary production and ring width data. MAIDEN explains 90 % of the observed daily gross primary production variability, 73 % of the annual ring width variability and 20-30 % of its high-frequency component (i.e., when decadal trends are removed). The positive effect on stem growth due to climate warming over the last several decades is well captured by the model. In addition, we illustrate how we improve the model with each introduced model adaptation and compare the model results with those of linear response functions. Our results demonstrate that MAIDEN simulates robust relationships with the most important climate variables (those detected by classical response-function analysis) and is a powerful tool for understanding how environmental factors interact with black spruce ecophysiology to influence present-day and future boreal forest carbon fluxes.

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“…One application of proxy forward models is the prediction of the evolution of proxy archives (Vaganov et al, 2006). They can also be applied within climate reconstruction strategies by using probabilistic inversion methods like Bayesian hierarchical modeling (Tolwinski-Ward, 2012), Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) (Boucher et al, 2014) and DA (Hughes et al, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assimilation of pseudo-tree-ring-width observations into an atmospheric general circulation model

et al. 2017

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Abstract. Paleoclimate data assimilation (DA) is a promising technique to systematically combine the information from climate model simulations and proxy records. Here, we investigate the assimilation of tree-ring-width (TRW) chronologies into an atmospheric global climate model using ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) techniques and a processbased tree-growth forward model as an observation operator. Our results, within a perfect-model experiment setting, indicate that the "online DA" approach did not outperform the "off-line" one, despite its considerable additional implementation complexity. On the other hand, it was observed that the nonlinear response of tree growth to surface temperature and soil moisture does deteriorate the operation of the timeaveraged EnKF methodology. Moreover, for the first time we show that this skill loss appears significantly sensitive to the structure of the growth rate function, used to represent the principle of limiting factors (PLF) within the forward model. In general, our experiments showed that the error reduction achieved by assimilating pseudo-TRW chronologies is modulated by the magnitude of the yearly internal variability in the model. This result might help the dendrochronology community to optimize their sampling efforts.

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An inverse modeling approach for tree-ring-based climate reconstructions under changing atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations

Cited by 32 publications

References 57 publications

Simulation of tree-ring widths with a model for primary production, carbon allocation, and growth

Simulation of tree-ring widths with a model for primary production, carbon allocation, and growth

Ecophysiological modeling of photosynthesis and carbon allocation to the tree stem in the boreal forest

Assimilation of pseudo-tree-ring-width observations into an atmospheric general circulation model

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