An Investigation of Critical Fire Weather Patterns: A Case Study

Abstract

A series of huge wildfires occurred in some regions of Lebanon in mid-October 2019, when the region witnessed a heat wave with high averages of minimum and maximum temperatures, accompanied by dry weather conditions. This study aimed to investigate the weather pattern that predominated over Lebanon between 10 and 18 October 2019, and to study the weather factors that ignited and spread the fire in several places. The study focused on the Chouf district, in Mount Lebanon Governorate, which witnessed the most severe wildfire outbreak, based on ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis data at the surface and upper levels between 10 and 18 October 2019. It was found that the existence of an atmospheric blocking system over the region for many days was the main factor in the creation of the dry and extremely hot weather, and that the breakdown of the ridge ignited the fire, reinforcing the wildfire’s intensity and spreading fire patches to other regions.