An investigation of the adaptive functions of overconfidence

Abstract

The research presented in this thesis explores the question of whether overconfidence provides adaptive benefits. Chapter 1 presents the arguments for three adaptive accounts of overconfidence; that it leads to mental health benefits, increased motivation, and positive social outcomes. It then outlines the forms of measurement needed to properly test these adaptive accounts, and reviews the extant literature. Chapter 2 reports a longitudinal study that tested the effects of two forms of overconfidence (athletic and intellectual) on each of the three adaptive outcomes. Results from this study were mixed, with both forms of overconfidence showing positive cross-sectional associations with mental health outcomes, but largely null effects over time. Overconfidence in sporting ability was strongly associated with increased effort and improvement in sport over time, as well as increased popularity. In contrast, intellectual overconfidence had largely null effects on effort, improvement, or social success over time. Together, the results from Chapter 2 provide evidence that at least one form of overconfidence conferred adaptive benefits to motivation and social success, while results on mental health were more ambiguous. Importantly, this study found no evidence for the oft-cited possibility that overconfidence leads to deleterious outcomes over time.Chapter 3 extends the investigation of the adaptive functions of overconfidence on social success, testing whether overconfidence helps to win potential romantic partners rather than just friends. In Study 1, overconfident people were perceived as more confident in their dating profiles, and this perceived confidence predicted increased romantic desirability.Study 2 revealed that overconfident people also tend to be perceived as arrogant, however, which counteracted the positive effects of perceived confidence. Study 3 supported the idea that overconfidence might confer an advantage in intrasexual competition, as people were less likely to compete with overconfident individuals due to their perceived confidence and arrogance. Study 4 showed that overconfident raters were themselves more likely to choose 3 to compete for romantic partners. In Study 5, agent-based modeling incorporating the coefficients from these prior studies suggested that overconfidence facilitates mate acquisition in the presence of intrasexual competition. Together, the results of Chapters 2 and 3 suggests that overconfidence has social benefits in at least some settings, and that these are likely due to the increased perceptions of confidence that it creates.Chapter 4 provides a discussion of the findings, and in particular explores potential reasons for the different effects of intellectual and athletic overconfidence in Chapter 2, and the different pattern of findings with athletic overconfidence in Chapter 2 and the primarily intellectual measure of overconfidence used in Chapter 3. Future directions of research that could disambiguate the possible explanations are suggested, and further wo...