Single-point incremental forming (SPIF) has emerged as a cost-effective and rapid manufacturing method, especially suitable for small-batch production due to its minimal reliance on molds, swift production, and affordability. Nonetheless, SPIF’s effectiveness is closely tied to the specific characteristics of the employed sheet materials and the intricacies of the desired shapes. Immediate experimentation with SPIF often leads to numerous product defects. Therefore, the pre-emptive use of numerical simulations to predict these defects is of paramount importance. In this study, we focus on the critical role of the forming limit curve (FLC) in SPIF simulations, specifically in anticipating product fractures. To facilitate this, we first construct the forming limit curve for Al1050 sheet material, leveraging the modified maximum force criterion (MMFC). This criterion, well-established in the field, derives FLCs based on the theory of hardening laws in sheet metal yield curves. In conjunction with the MMFC, we introduce a graphical approach that simplifies the prediction of forming limit curves at fracture (FLCF). Within the context of the SPIF method, FLCF is established through both uniaxial tensile deformation (U.T) and simultaneous uniform tensile deformation in bi-axial tensile (B.T). Subsequently, the FLCF predictions are applied in simulations and experiments focused on forming truncated cone parts. Notably, a substantial deviation in fracture height, amounting to 15.97%, is observed between simulated and experimental samples. To enhance FLCF prediction accuracy in SPIF, we propose a novel method based on simulations of truncated cone parts with variable tool radii. A FLCF is then constructed by determining major/minor strains in simulated samples. To ascertain the validity of this enhanced FLCF model, our study includes simulations and tests of truncated cone samples with varying wall angles, revealing a substantial alignment in fracture height between corresponding samples. This research contributes to the advancement of SPIF by enhancing our ability to predict and mitigate product defects, ultimately expanding the applicability of SPIF in diverse industrial contexts.