An Optimization Approach towards Air Traffic Forecasting: A Case Study of Air Traffic in Changi Airport

Abstract

SouthEast Asia is considered one of the fastest air traffic growing regions in the world. Congested air traffic and weather conditions have thus become major factors in air traffic management. In this paper the model for air traffic forecasting was able to forecast the country, city-pair and airport-pair air traffic. Results show that the passenger forecasting for Singapore has dependence not only on that country but on neighbouring countries as well. The paper predicts that the passenger movements in Changi airport will increase up to 81.65 million people by year 2023, which is 31.23 % more than that in 2017. Also, the number of passenger aircraft between Singapore and Jakarta city-pair will increase up to 34702 by year 2023, which is 26.6 % more than that in 2017. In addition, the number of passenger aircraft between Changi airport and KLIA airport-pair will be between 31698 and 40311 by year 2023.

Insights of Models for Air Traffic Management System

“…ATFM's task is to assign optimally capable of reducing foreseen negative impacts, e.g. extreme flight termination and flight delays, for all users during airport shortfalls [15,16,20]. The allocation of ground holds to departure aircraft was used as an operating technique to reduce flight delays and system costs due to delays.…”