We provide evidence that institutional adaptations to climate change are more robust and durable than technological adaptations in African agriculture. Climate change has direct implications on agriculture globally but especially in Sub-Saharan Africa where a large number of small-scale farmers are dependent on it as their main livelihood. In this study, we analyze the impact of climate on farmers across Sub-Saharan Africa leveraging a unique dataset from a large and coordinated multi-country survey we conducted across Uganda, Zambia, Tanzania, Sierra Leone, Burkina Faso, and São Tomé and Príncipe. We find that an increase in spring and autumn temperatures, and an increase in winter and summer precipitation positively affect farmer net revenues. In contrast, an increase in summer and winter temperatures, and in spring and autumn precipitation negatively affect net revenue. We extend our analysis to account for farmer adaptations and evaluate the effects of future climate scenarios i.e., RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, over the short, medium, and long term i.e., 2021–2040, 2041–2060 and 2080–2100. We find that farmers can consistently offset the adverse impacts of climate change from a range of future climate scenarios across short-, medium, and long-term horizons through institutional adaptions, namely belonging to input buyer organizations, and output seller organizations. In contrast, technological and practice related adaptations—namely, use of irrigation, intercropping and mechanization—have relatively lower or no substantive benefits compared to institutional adaptations. We suggest more research to enhance our understanding of the types of institutional adaptations that will be most beneficial.
JEL codes: Q12, Q15, Q54